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Cassava flour in Ruhehe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,169–1,977

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,162–2,141

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,169 and 1,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,162 and 2,141 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Ruhehe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,169 and 1,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,162 and 2,141 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,088); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,183–1,588 1,384 1,046–1,666 1,407 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,114–1,663 1,386 934–2,092 1,327 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,169–1,977 1,397 937–3,003 1,585 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,138–2,133 1,387 959–4,088 1,560 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,162–2,141 1,415 976–3,345 1,565 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,425
Jun 20261,600
May 20261,611
Apr 20261,650
Mar 20261,359
Feb 20261,377
Jan 20261,500
Dec 20251,395
Nov 20251,104
Oct 20251,094
Sept 20251,372
Aug 20251,560
Jul 20251,724
Jun 20251,746
May 20251,523
Apr 20251,500
Mar 20251,372
Feb 20251,003
Jan 20251,101
Dec 20241,169
Nov 20241,265
Oct 20241,292
Sept 20241,251
Aug 20241,220
Jul 20241,125
Jun 20241,421
May 20241,702
Apr 20241,833
Mar 20241,827
Feb 20241,930
Jan 20241,833
Dec 20231,783
Nov 20231,700
Oct 20231,600
Sept 20231,564
Aug 20231,635
Jul 20231,710
Jun 20231,894
May 20231,949
Apr 20232,006
Mar 20231,982
Feb 20231,802
Dec 20221,222
Nov 20221,286
Oct 20221,250
Sept 20221,017
Aug 2022879
May 20221,214
Apr 20221,150
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021750
May 20211,000
Apr 2021883
Mar 2021967
Feb 2021775
Jan 2021800
Dec 2020800
Nov 2020800
Oct 2020550
Sept 2020550
Aug 2020606
Jul 2020679
Jun 2020775
Mar 2020667
Feb 2020625
Jan 2020700
Dec 2019675
Oct 2019425
Aug 2019438
Jul 2019462
Jun 2019550
May 2019538
Mar 2019490
Feb 2019550
Jan 2019475
Dec 2018525
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018562
Jul 2018775
Jun 2018770
May 2018792
Apr 2018808
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018850
Jan 20181,130
Dec 20171,000
Nov 20171,075
Oct 20171,167
Sept 20171,156
Aug 20171,267
Jul 20171,278
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,362
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,050
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016975
Oct 2016800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2461-74-retail-kg.