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Oil (vegetable) in Ruhehe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,425–22,380

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,477–24,343

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

13%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,425 and 22,380 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,477 and 24,343 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Ruhehe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,425 and 22,380 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,477 and 24,343 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 36,487); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,715–20,213 17,743 14,520–22,197 18,364 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 15,279–20,963 17,718 14,271–27,394 18,340 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,425–22,380 17,606 13,968–30,296 18,283 13%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,254–22,662 17,517 14,089–31,584 18,339 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,477–24,343 17,450 12,123–36,487 19,789 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202619,250
Jun 202617,833
May 202617,000
Apr 202618,000
Mar 202614,500
Feb 202615,974
Jan 202617,045
Dec 202517,650
Nov 202518,000
Oct 202517,716
Sept 202517,938
Aug 202518,600
Jul 202518,471
Jun 202518,000
May 202518,000
Apr 202518,000
Mar 202516,079
Feb 202515,603
Jan 202514,640
Dec 202414,200
Nov 202413,533
Oct 202413,069
Sept 202413,194
Aug 202411,950
Jul 202411,958
Jun 202412,000
May 202411,509
Apr 20249,333
Mar 20249,608
Feb 20249,852
Jan 20249,250
Dec 20239,250
Nov 202310,000
Oct 20239,438
Sept 20239,269
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20239,700
Jun 20239,894
May 202310,412
Apr 202310,094
Mar 202310,452
Feb 20239,542
Dec 20229,583
Nov 20229,069
Oct 20229,250
Sept 20229,611
Aug 202210,206
May 20228,511
Apr 20228,750
Mar 20229,000
Feb 20229,500
Jan 20229,000
Oct 20217,750
May 20216,400
Apr 20216,312
Mar 20216,000
Feb 20215,675
Jan 20215,241
Dec 20204,850
Nov 20204,775
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,650
Aug 20204,848
Jul 20204,750
Jun 20205,175
Mar 20205,167
Feb 20204,875
Jan 20204,600
Dec 20194,625
Nov 20194,625
Oct 20194,750
Sept 20195,000
Aug 20194,750
Jul 20195,250
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,875
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,450
Jan 20194,750
Dec 20184,750
Nov 20184,750
Oct 20184,667
Sept 20184,875
Aug 20185,300
Jul 20184,875
Jun 20184,800
May 20184,583
Apr 20185,000
Mar 20185,000
Feb 20185,000
Jan 20185,360

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2461-96-retail-kg.