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Food basket in Ruhehe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

24,918–37,435

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,262–43,084

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,732 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,918 and 37,435 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,262 and 43,084 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ruhehe: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,732 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,918 and 37,435 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,262 and 43,084 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 65,196); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 25,565–31,130 28,246 24,051–32,502
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 24,533–32,543 28,274 22,469–37,910
Nov 2026
Next month		 24,918–37,435 29,064 22,611–50,890
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 24,789–41,004 29,384 22,380–65,196
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,262–43,084 29,461 21,626–64,052
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202628,732
Jun 202631,585
May 202632,532
Apr 202634,905
Mar 202628,777
Feb 202627,699
Jan 202629,224
Dec 202528,312
Nov 202524,112
Oct 202524,972
Sept 202529,186
Aug 202531,491
Jul 202532,756
Jun 202532,755
May 202529,560
Apr 202529,937
Mar 202528,920
Feb 202523,782
Jan 202522,723
Dec 202424,593
Nov 202424,884
Oct 202424,567
Sept 202423,618
Aug 202423,374
Jul 202421,770
Jun 202425,535
May 202428,668
Apr 202430,421
Mar 202430,438
Feb 202431,156
Jan 202429,617
Dec 202329,617
Nov 202328,275
Oct 202327,922
Sept 202327,445
Aug 202328,268
Jul 202328,097
Jun 202330,118
May 202332,084
Apr 202333,497
Mar 202332,787
Feb 202330,068
Dec 202221,125
Nov 202222,101
Oct 202221,124
Sept 202217,899
Aug 202216,433
May 202220,005
Apr 202219,329
Mar 202217,415
Feb 202216,380
Jan 202216,070
Oct 202113,208
May 202115,224
Apr 202113,995
Mar 202115,299
Feb 202113,108
Jan 202112,990
Dec 202013,072
Nov 202013,412
Oct 202010,506
Sept 202010,506
Aug 202011,088
Jul 202011,822
Jun 202012,832
Mar 202011,615
Feb 202010,963
Jan 202011,406
Dec 201911,348
Oct 20198,426
Aug 20198,669
Jul 20199,139
Jun 20199,802
May 20199,879
Mar 20199,064
Feb 20199,692
Jan 20198,421
Dec 20189,525
Nov 20189,045
Oct 20188,250
Sept 20188,620
Aug 201810,037
Jul 201812,829
Jun 201812,701
May 201812,729
Apr 201812,575
Mar 201812,488
Feb 201813,035
Jan 201816,130

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620