Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Rusaka

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,201–11,108

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,733–12,247

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,201 and 11,108 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,733 and 12,247 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Rusaka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,201 and 11,108 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,733 and 12,247 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,379); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,496–10,434 9,487 8,195–11,390 9,894 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,274–11,016 9,614 7,929–13,532 10,136 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,201–11,108 9,144 7,269–14,494 9,337 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,180–11,680 9,284 7,591–15,803 9,578 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,733–12,247 9,373 6,841–18,379 9,922 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,000
Jun 202610,000
May 202610,088
Apr 202610,375
Mar 20269,938
Feb 20269,769
Jan 202610,056
Dec 202510,559
Nov 202510,438
Oct 202511,000
Sept 202511,848
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202512,500
Jun 202511,659
May 202510,118
Apr 202510,700
Mar 20259,696
Feb 20258,143
Jan 20256,662
Dec 20246,098
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,115
Sept 20245,361
Aug 20245,694
Jul 20245,958
Jun 20245,719
May 20245,500
Apr 20246,000
Mar 20245,400
Feb 20244,956
Jan 20245,106
Dec 20235,000
Nov 20234,500
Oct 20235,062
Sept 20235,150
Aug 20235,350
Jul 20234,767
Jun 20234,611
May 20234,271
Apr 20234,627
Mar 20234,581
Feb 20234,125
Dec 20224,394
Nov 20224,519
Oct 20224,043
Sept 20224,583
Aug 20224,650
May 20224,326
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20224,100
Feb 20223,933
Jan 20224,000
Oct 20214,000
May 20212,667
Apr 20212,538
Mar 20212,617
Feb 20212,467
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,600
Nov 20202,683
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,529
Aug 20202,606
Jul 20202,647
Jun 20202,581
Mar 20202,800
Feb 20202,667
Jan 20202,533
Dec 20192,483
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,717
Aug 20192,880
Jul 20192,750
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,833
Mar 20192,467
Feb 20192,433
Jan 20192,567
Dec 20182,667
Nov 20182,483
Oct 20184,600
Sept 20182,967
Aug 20183,067
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,040
May 20182,900
Apr 20182,560
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,300
Jan 20182,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2462-62-retail-kg.