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Cassava flour in Rusaka

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,355–2,077

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,347–2,196

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,355 and 2,077 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,347 and 2,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Rusaka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,355 and 2,077 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,347 and 2,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,319); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,430–1,766 1,575 1,335–1,922 1,863 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,402–1,812 1,585 1,292–1,973 1,765 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,355–2,077 1,596 1,258–2,486 2,013 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,317–2,174 1,596 1,239–3,319 1,928 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,347–2,196 1,627 1,242–2,914 1,872 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,550
Jun 20261,633
May 20261,697
Apr 20262,038
Mar 20261,900
Feb 20261,846
Jan 20261,661
Dec 20251,659
Nov 20251,688
Oct 20251,550
Sept 20251,607
Aug 20251,625
Jul 20251,900
Jun 20251,539
May 20251,629
Apr 20251,650
Mar 20251,657
Feb 20251,669
Jan 20251,750
Dec 20241,948
Nov 20241,900
Oct 20241,754
Sept 20241,522
Aug 20241,726
Jul 20241,726
Jun 20241,728
May 20241,779
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,900
Feb 20241,944
Jan 20241,979
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,547
Sept 20232,015
Aug 20231,920
Jul 20231,951
Jun 20231,700
May 20231,656
Apr 20231,642
Mar 20231,668
Feb 20231,700
Dec 20221,285
Nov 20221,314
Oct 20221,320
Sept 20221,183
Aug 20221,200
May 20221,048
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,033
Jan 20221,000
Oct 20211,000
May 2021883
Apr 2021894
Mar 2021823
Feb 2021867
Jan 2021917
Dec 2020950
Nov 2020862
Oct 2020900
Sept 2020746
Aug 2020762
Jul 2020738
Jun 2020736
Mar 2020683
Feb 2020633
Jan 2020667
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019533
Aug 2019550
Jul 2019567
Jun 2019633
May 2019617
Mar 2019633
Feb 2019592
Jan 2019633
Dec 2018642
Nov 2018633
Oct 2018650
Sept 2018733
Aug 2018725
Jul 2018860
Jun 2018940
May 2018925
Apr 20181,040
Mar 2018900
Feb 20181,060
Jan 20181,167
Dec 20171,167
Nov 20171,240
Oct 20171,167
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,283
Jun 20171,250
May 20171,267
Apr 20171,233
Mar 20171,183
Feb 20171,180
Jan 20171,033
Dec 20161,082
Nov 2016930
Oct 2016960

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2462-74-retail-kg.