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Maize flour in Rusaka

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,855–2,584

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,754–3,009

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,855 and 2,584 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,754 and 3,009 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Rusaka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,855 and 2,584 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,754 and 3,009 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,520); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,820–2,148 1,935 1,687–2,435 2,353 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,808–2,246 1,994 1,687–2,850 2,428 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,855–2,584 2,035 1,669–3,916 2,677 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,839–2,762 2,088 1,639–4,737 2,751 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,754–3,009 2,042 1,583–6,520 2,608 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,950
Jun 20261,667
May 20261,682
Apr 20261,612
Mar 20261,956
Feb 20262,296
Jan 20262,219
Dec 20252,200
Nov 20252,372
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20251,975
Jul 20252,150
Jun 20251,866
May 20251,965
Apr 20252,075
Mar 20251,950
Feb 20252,529
Jan 20252,832
Dec 20243,007
Nov 20242,750
Oct 20242,285
Sept 20242,150
Aug 20242,097
Jul 20241,932
Jun 20241,900
May 20242,017
Apr 20242,000
Mar 20242,050
Feb 20242,160
Jan 20242,146
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,250
Oct 20232,266
Sept 20232,200
Aug 20232,135
Jul 20232,178
Jun 20232,078
May 20232,058
Apr 20231,975
Mar 20232,361
Feb 20232,372
Dec 20222,242
Nov 20222,151
Oct 20221,910
Sept 20221,817
Aug 20221,575
May 20221,272
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,300
Feb 20221,333
Jan 20221,400
Oct 20211,300
May 20211,067
Apr 20211,100
Mar 20211,142
Feb 20211,150
Jan 20211,183
Dec 20201,200
Nov 20201,150
Oct 20201,200
Sept 20201,011
Aug 20201,041
Jul 2020995
Jun 2020977
Mar 20201,067
Feb 20201,300
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,367
Oct 20191,217
Aug 2019960
Jul 20191,183
Jun 2019783
May 2019767
Mar 20191,000
Feb 2019825
Jan 20191,000
Dec 2018967
Nov 2018875
Oct 2018800
Sept 2018833
Aug 2018833
Jul 2018820
Jun 2018860
May 2018838
Apr 20181,000
Mar 20181,000
Feb 20181,100
Jan 20181,056
Dec 20171,133
Nov 20171,290
Oct 20171,350
Sept 20171,357
Aug 20171,400
Jul 20171,400
Jun 20171,367
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,417
Mar 20171,483
Feb 20171,560
Jan 20171,500
Dec 20161,409
Nov 20161,270
Oct 20161,160

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2462-76-retail-kg.