Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (vegetable) in Rusaka

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,706–22,262

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,148–23,690

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,706 and 22,262 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,148 and 23,690 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Rusaka: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,706 and 22,262 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,148 and 23,690 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 39,661); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,927–19,034 16,921 14,234–20,520 19,345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,378–19,551 16,931 13,992–22,612 18,204 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,706–22,262 16,846 13,436–35,016 19,650 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,588–23,085 16,906 13,232–36,726 19,979 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,148–23,690 16,786 12,110–39,661 19,622 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,000
Jun 202616,667
May 202617,088
Apr 202617,500
Mar 202617,875
Feb 202617,269
Jan 202618,167
Dec 202517,000
Nov 202521,281
Oct 202518,824
Sept 202519,826
Aug 202521,750
Jul 202517,000
Jun 202520,523
May 202520,471
Apr 202520,150
Mar 202517,261
Feb 202517,298
Jan 202516,662
Dec 202416,717
Nov 202414,500
Oct 202414,769
Sept 202411,389
Aug 202412,355
Jul 202411,226
Jun 202411,562
May 202412,000
Apr 202410,000
Mar 202410,000
Feb 202410,580
Jan 202410,485
Dec 202312,000
Nov 202311,000
Oct 20239,938
Sept 20239,850
Aug 202310,525
Jul 202310,700
Jun 202311,056
May 202311,323
Apr 202311,080
Mar 202310,500
Feb 202310,031
Dec 20229,258
Nov 20229,435
Oct 20229,467
Sept 202210,167
Aug 20228,500
May 20226,383
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20227,067
Feb 20226,833
Jan 20228,000
Oct 20215,250
May 20215,400
Apr 20215,302
Mar 20215,038
Feb 20215,733
Jan 20214,450
Dec 20205,250
Nov 20204,583
Oct 20204,500
Sept 20205,302
Aug 20204,065
Jul 20204,997
Jun 20205,322
Mar 20204,333
Feb 20204,400
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,833
Nov 20194,860
Oct 20195,033
Sept 20195,333
Aug 20195,000
Jul 20195,083
Jun 20195,000
May 20195,167
Mar 20194,750
Feb 20194,450
Jan 20195,250
Dec 20185,667
Nov 20185,667
Oct 20185,583
Sept 20185,667
Aug 20185,500
Jul 20185,800
Jun 20186,000
May 20185,750
Apr 20186,100
Mar 20186,667
Feb 20186,167
Jan 20184,778

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2462-96-retail-kg.