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Food basket in Rusaka

Mwaro, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,257–38,632

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

28,009–42,096

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,675 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,257 and 38,632 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,009 and 42,096 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Rusaka: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,675 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,257 and 38,632 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,009 and 42,096 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 55,489); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,086–33,894 31,271 27,698–36,102
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,788–34,906 31,504 27,193–37,444
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,257–38,632 32,033 26,602–43,269
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,841–41,244 32,540 26,256–55,489
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 28,009–42,096 32,744 26,099–51,882
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202630,675
Jun 202631,750
May 202636,167
Apr 202639,484
Mar 202635,057
Feb 202634,295
Jan 202632,247
Dec 202531,766
Nov 202532,655
Oct 202531,484
Sept 202532,247
Aug 202532,145
Jul 202535,745
Jun 202530,886
May 202531,696
Apr 202533,348
Mar 202532,704
Feb 202531,947
Jan 202531,897
Dec 202433,881
Nov 202432,790
Oct 202430,666
Sept 202427,366
Aug 202429,353
Jul 202429,199
Jun 202428,531
May 202429,885
Apr 202432,640
Mar 202431,926
Feb 202431,996
Jan 202432,083
Dec 202332,850
Nov 202332,235
Oct 202327,546
Sept 202332,846
Aug 202331,420
Jul 202330,628
Jun 202327,582
May 202329,246
Apr 202329,252
Mar 202329,145
Feb 202328,568
Dec 202222,552
Nov 202222,875
Oct 202221,876
Sept 202220,032
Aug 202219,904
May 202219,002
Apr 202217,460
Mar 202218,129
Feb 202217,394
Jan 202217,100
Oct 202117,010
May 202115,440
Apr 202115,465
Mar 202114,452
Feb 202114,952
Jan 202115,695
Dec 202016,344
Nov 202015,231
Oct 202015,156
Sept 202013,180
Aug 202013,348
Jul 202012,662
Jun 202012,690
Mar 202012,352
Feb 202011,660
Jan 202011,908
Dec 201910,984
Oct 20199,976
Aug 201910,063
Jul 201910,438
Jun 201911,092
May 201911,665
Mar 201911,702
Feb 201910,669
Jan 201911,771
Dec 201811,820
Nov 201811,503
Oct 201813,014
Sept 201812,767
Aug 201812,496
Jul 201813,992
Jun 201815,196
May 201815,351
Apr 201816,190
Mar 201814,376
Feb 201816,077
Jan 201817,338

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620