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Oil (palm) in Chez Siyoni

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,015–9,190

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,890–9,720

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,015 and 9,190 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,890 and 9,720 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Chez Siyoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,015 and 9,190 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,890 and 9,720 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,523–9,324 8,122 7,058–9,608 9,987 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,110–9,105 7,965 6,377–9,941 9,239 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,015–9,190 7,950 6,303–9,861 8,927 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,968–9,388 7,924 5,931–9,826 9,255 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,890–9,720 8,100 5,576–11,267 9,170 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,167
Jul 20268,500
Jun 20268,804
May 20268,667
Apr 20268,167
Mar 20268,622
Feb 20267,964
Jan 20267,812
Dec 20258,354
Nov 20258,115
Oct 20259,132
Sept 202511,111
Aug 202510,722
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202510,611
May 202510,667
Apr 202510,117
Mar 20259,539
Feb 20258,095
Jan 20257,304
Dec 20246,317
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,389
Sept 20246,636
Aug 20247,138
Jul 20246,625
Jun 20246,292
May 20246,556
Apr 20246,000
Mar 20245,535
Feb 20245,000
Jan 20245,750
Dec 20235,875
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,106
Sept 20236,281
Aug 20235,952
Jul 20235,967
Jun 20236,068
May 20235,468
Apr 20235,500
Mar 20235,000
Feb 20234,781
Jan 20234,750
Dec 20224,250
Oct 20225,500
Sept 20225,888
Aug 20225,615
Jul 20225,750
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,794
Apr 20225,000
Mar 20224,500
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20223,875
Oct 20213,167
May 20213,100
Apr 20213,058
Mar 20212,980
Feb 20213,017
Jan 20213,000
Nov 20202,750
Sept 20202,550
Aug 20202,622
Jul 20202,944
Jun 20202,917
Mar 20203,057
Feb 20202,633
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20193,067
Nov 20192,967
Oct 20192,860
Sept 20193,033
Aug 20193,200
Jul 20193,667
Jun 20193,333
May 20193,333
Mar 20193,420
Feb 20192,480
Jan 20192,860
Dec 20182,700
Nov 20182,667
Oct 20182,500
Sept 20183,083
Aug 20183,860
Jul 20183,960
Jun 20183,325
May 20182,875
Apr 20182,820
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,275
Jan 20182,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2464-62-retail-kg.