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Cassava flour in Chez Siyoni

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,831–2,874

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,747–3,258

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,831 and 2,874 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,747 and 3,258 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Chez Siyoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,831 and 2,874 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,747 and 3,258 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,849); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,952–2,464 2,177 1,790–2,750 2,731 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,883–2,635 2,192 1,711–3,329 2,667 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,831–2,874 2,154 1,674–3,809 2,828 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,793–3,037 2,142 1,662–4,836 2,649 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,747–3,258 2,168 1,567–5,849 2,641 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,100
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20262,411
May 20262,283
Apr 20262,250
Mar 20262,276
Feb 20262,390
Jan 20262,172
Dec 20252,210
Nov 20252,285
Oct 20252,097
Sept 20252,133
Aug 20251,811
Jul 20252,025
Jun 20252,128
May 20252,367
Apr 20252,373
Mar 20252,227
Feb 20252,283
Jan 20252,143
Dec 20242,280
Nov 20242,234
Oct 20242,212
Sept 20242,164
Aug 20242,100
Jul 20242,175
Jun 20242,175
May 20242,233
Apr 20242,233
Mar 20242,294
Feb 20242,385
Jan 20242,242
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20232,500
Oct 20232,463
Sept 20232,353
Aug 20232,248
Jul 20232,467
Jun 20232,591
May 20232,513
Apr 20232,300
Mar 20231,796
Feb 20232,088
Jan 20231,600
Dec 20221,567
Oct 20221,600
Sept 20221,600
Aug 20221,425
Jul 20221,350
Jun 20221,400
May 20221,403
Apr 20221,423
Mar 20221,350
Feb 20221,367
Jan 20221,350
Oct 20211,342
May 20211,200
Apr 20211,183
Mar 20211,180
Feb 20211,167
Jan 20211,200
Nov 20201,200
Sept 20201,200
Aug 20201,192
Jul 20201,133
Jun 20201,000
Mar 20201,000
Feb 2020967
Jan 2020933
Dec 2019817
Oct 2019970
Aug 2019950
Jul 2019850
Jun 2019800
May 2019783
Mar 2019980
Feb 2019640
Jan 2019740
Dec 20181,042
Nov 2018950
Oct 2018920
Sept 2018967
Aug 20181,120
Jul 20181,020
Jun 20181,138
May 20181,250
Apr 20181,380
Mar 20181,367
Feb 20181,250
Jan 20181,150

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2464-74-retail-kg.