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Maize flour in Chez Siyoni

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,194–2,995

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,155–2,977

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,194 and 2,995 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,155 and 2,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Chez Siyoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,194 and 2,995 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,155 and 2,977 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,124–2,630 2,365 2,009–2,913 2,748 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,172–2,856 2,442 1,992–3,128 2,942 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,194–2,995 2,450 1,998–3,674 2,985 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,235–3,033 2,497 2,048–3,534 3,217 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,155–2,977 2,430 1,937–2,993 3,115 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,350
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,446
May 20262,550
Apr 20262,467
Mar 20262,527
Feb 20262,761
Jan 20262,547
Dec 20252,512
Nov 20252,565
Oct 20252,482
Sept 20252,489
Aug 20252,089
Jul 20252,350
Jun 20252,572
May 20252,317
Apr 20252,628
Mar 20252,639
Feb 20252,481
Jan 20253,025
Dec 20242,547
Nov 20242,420
Oct 20242,214
Sept 20242,168
Aug 20242,130
Jul 20242,100
Jun 20242,083
May 20242,111
Apr 20242,133
Mar 20242,125
Feb 20242,144
Jan 20242,258
Dec 20232,375
Nov 20232,400
Oct 20232,283
Sept 20232,303
Aug 20232,248
Jul 20232,342
Jun 20232,718
May 20232,423
Apr 20232,050
Mar 20232,300
Feb 20232,344
Jan 20232,450
Dec 20222,467
Oct 20221,800
Sept 20221,850
Aug 20221,965
Jul 20221,575
Jun 20221,525
May 20221,593
Apr 20221,558
Mar 20221,500
Feb 20221,500
Jan 20221,575
Oct 20211,450
May 20211,500
Apr 20211,450
Mar 20211,300
Feb 20211,467
Jan 20211,500
Nov 20201,433
Sept 20201,400
Aug 20201,421
Jul 20201,244
Jun 20201,317
Mar 20201,386
Feb 20201,375
Jan 20201,700
Dec 20191,567
Oct 20191,620
Aug 20191,525
Jul 20191,550
Jun 20191,133
May 20191,000
Mar 20191,400
Feb 20191,010
Jan 20191,080
Dec 20181,233
Nov 20181,250
Oct 20181,360
Sept 2018975
Aug 20181,340
Jul 20181,100
Jun 20181,150
May 2018950
Apr 20181,170
Mar 20181,233
Feb 20181,175
Jan 20181,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2464-76-retail-kg.