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Oil (vegetable) in Chez Siyoni

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,426–16,707

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,059–17,385

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,426 and 16,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,059 and 17,385 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Chez Siyoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,426 and 16,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,059 and 17,385 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,683–15,605 13,622 12,147–16,196 16,022 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,335–16,080 13,704 11,762–17,310 16,768 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,426–16,707 13,845 11,266–20,421 16,206 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,055–17,142 13,539 11,055–18,864 16,024 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,059–17,385 14,107 11,236–17,993 18,281 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,000
Jul 202615,000
Jun 202613,630
May 202614,167
Apr 202613,167
Mar 202612,889
Feb 202613,357
Jan 202613,667
Dec 202513,458
Nov 202515,188
Oct 202516,439
Sept 202515,667
Aug 202515,333
Jul 202516,250
Jun 202518,944
May 202518,000
Apr 202518,417
Mar 202517,118
Feb 202514,881
Jan 202514,706
Dec 202412,500
Nov 202412,417
Oct 202413,000
Sept 202412,470
Aug 202412,300
Jul 202412,500
Jun 202411,667
May 202411,556
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,000
Feb 20249,000
Jan 20249,000
Dec 20238,250
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,233
Sept 20239,469
Aug 20238,419
Jul 20239,233
Jun 20239,364
May 20238,419
Apr 20238,500
Mar 20238,000
Feb 20238,000
Jan 20239,000
Dec 20228,000
Oct 20228,000
Sept 20228,000
Aug 20229,050
Jul 20229,500
Jun 202210,000
May 20229,000
Apr 20228,077
Mar 20228,750
Feb 20228,667
Jan 20229,000
Oct 20218,217
May 20216,500
Apr 20216,656
Mar 20216,775
Feb 20216,333
Jan 20216,000
Nov 20205,608
Sept 20204,500
Aug 20204,902
Jul 20205,097
Jun 20204,633
Mar 20204,886
Feb 20204,917
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,783
Nov 20194,133
Oct 20193,600
Sept 20194,517
Aug 20193,875
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,167
May 20194,667
Mar 20194,400
Feb 20195,000
Jan 20194,160
Dec 20184,133
Nov 20184,217
Oct 20184,340
Sept 20184,117
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,700
Jun 20184,625
May 20184,125
Apr 20184,600
Mar 20184,667
Feb 20184,550
Jan 20185,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2464-96-retail-kg.