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Food basket in Chez Siyoni

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

33,496–49,263

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

32,073–53,855

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 36,385 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 33,496 and 49,263 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 32,073 and 53,855 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Chez Siyoni: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 36,385 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 33,496 and 49,263 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 32,073 and 53,855 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 79,992); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 34,833–41,970 37,976 32,937–45,772
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 34,080–45,486 38,290 31,892–55,260
Nov 2026
Next month		 33,496–49,263 38,342 31,460–60,984
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 32,960–53,173 38,514 31,134–78,036
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 32,073–53,855 38,367 29,236–79,992
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202636,385
Jul 202635,265
Jun 202640,762
May 202641,630
Apr 202639,385
Mar 202638,956
Feb 202639,860
Jan 202637,172
Dec 202537,821
Nov 202538,473
Oct 202536,983
Sept 202538,717
Aug 202534,912
Jul 202538,145
Jun 202538,955
May 202542,030
Apr 202542,075
Mar 202539,714
Feb 202539,093
Jan 202536,540
Dec 202437,298
Nov 202436,668
Oct 202436,607
Sept 202436,074
Aug 202435,475
Jul 202435,891
Jun 202435,496
May 202437,683
Apr 202436,880
Mar 202436,710
Feb 202437,482
Jan 202436,463
Dec 202336,304
Nov 202339,720
Oct 202339,195
Sept 202337,612
Aug 202335,791
Jul 202338,357
Jun 202341,063
May 202340,512
Apr 202337,560
Mar 202331,375
Feb 202334,120
Jan 202327,968
Dec 202225,933
Oct 202225,695
Sept 202226,154
Aug 202223,935
Jul 202222,732
Jun 202223,400
May 202224,034
Apr 202223,628
Mar 202222,005
Feb 202221,440
Jan 202221,304
Oct 202120,595
May 202119,509
Apr 202119,421
Mar 202119,276
Feb 202119,022
Jan 202118,810
Nov 202019,538
Sept 202018,860
Aug 202018,742
Jul 202017,979
Jun 202016,278
Mar 202016,784
Feb 202015,622
Jan 202015,610
Dec 201914,376
Oct 201915,809
Aug 201915,858
Jul 201914,965
Jun 201913,700
May 201913,860
Mar 201916,460
Feb 201911,443
Jan 201912,995
Dec 201816,703
Nov 201815,400
Oct 201814,907
Sept 201815,843
Aug 201818,209
Jul 201817,006
Jun 201817,834
May 201819,369
Apr 201820,414
Mar 201819,916
Feb 201818,550
Jan 201816,980

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620