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Oil (palm) in Buhiga

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,656–10,336

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,479–10,837

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,656 and 10,336 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,479 and 10,837 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Buhiga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,656 and 10,336 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,479 and 10,837 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,147–10,285 8,924 7,577–10,490 10,690 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,685–10,160 8,759 6,900–10,798 9,879 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,656–10,336 8,852 7,035–11,239 9,961 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,732–10,656 9,001 6,791–10,783 10,269 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,479–10,837 9,059 6,499–11,814 10,219 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,842
Jul 202610,000
Jun 20269,391
May 20269,833
Apr 202610,000
Mar 20269,833
Feb 202610,718
Jan 20268,636
Dec 20259,507
Nov 20259,854
Oct 202510,569
Sept 20259,615
Aug 202510,500
Jul 202511,269
Jun 202511,062
May 202511,417
Apr 202512,000
Mar 202510,275
Feb 20258,595
Jan 20256,895
Dec 20246,583
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20245,916
Sept 20246,008
Aug 20246,038
Jul 20246,222
Jun 20246,288
May 20246,139
Apr 20246,333
Mar 20245,761
Feb 20245,724
Jan 20245,763
Dec 20235,800
Nov 20235,495
Oct 20235,638
Sept 20236,133
Aug 20236,000
Jul 20235,644
Jun 20235,833
May 20235,621
Apr 20234,930
Mar 20234,628
Feb 20234,567
Dec 20224,582
Nov 20224,571
Oct 20224,167
Sept 20224,675
Aug 20224,946
Jul 20225,000
May 20224,637
Apr 20224,062
Mar 20223,633
Feb 20223,567
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20213,667
Aug 20214,433
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,779
Mar 20212,600
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,517
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,200
Sept 20202,282
Aug 20202,514
Jul 20202,502
Jun 20202,533
Mar 20202,350
Feb 20202,433
Jan 20202,333
Dec 20192,467
Nov 20192,233
Oct 20192,157
Sept 20192,500
Aug 20192,800
Jul 20192,800
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,667
Mar 20192,300
Feb 20192,217
Jan 20192,133
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20182,000
Oct 20182,062
Sept 20182,760
Aug 20183,133
Jul 20183,200
Jun 20183,067
May 20182,633

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2465-62-retail-kg.