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Cassava flour in Buhiga

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

947–1,719

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

947–2,107

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 947 and 1,719 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 947 and 2,107 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Buhiga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 947 and 1,719 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 947 and 2,107 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,310); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 959–1,424 1,148 855–1,570 1,452 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 909–1,571 1,138 759–2,168 1,351 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 947–1,719 1,214 763–2,825 1,625 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 934–1,797 1,217 781–2,896 1,587 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 947–2,107 1,261 781–5,310 1,620 –
Price history (122 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,033
Jul 20261,300
Jun 20261,376
May 20261,533
Apr 20261,750
Mar 20261,623
Feb 20261,792
Jan 20261,391
Dec 20251,356
Nov 20251,044
Oct 20251,115
Sept 20251,206
Aug 20251,000
Jul 20251,635
Jun 20251,728
May 20251,854
Apr 20251,708
Mar 20251,400
Feb 20251,368
Jan 20251,203
Dec 20241,220
Nov 20241,448
Oct 20241,304
Sept 20241,233
Aug 20241,350
Jul 20241,344
Jun 20241,472
May 20241,397
Apr 20241,583
Mar 20241,538
Feb 20241,574
Jan 20241,777
Dec 20231,600
Nov 20231,600
Oct 20231,534
Sept 20231,533
Aug 20231,800
Jul 20231,667
Jun 20231,761
May 20231,924
Apr 20231,915
Mar 20231,861
Feb 20231,517
Dec 20221,297
Nov 20221,309
Oct 20221,074
Sept 20221,064
Aug 20221,127
Jul 20221,100
May 20221,154
Apr 20221,054
Mar 2022967
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021867
Aug 2021967
May 20211,000
Apr 2021926
Mar 2021900
Feb 2021883
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020826
Nov 2020777
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020682
Aug 2020761
Jul 2020737
Jun 2020778
Mar 2020588
Feb 2020583
Jan 2020583
Dec 2019558
Oct 2019463
Aug 2019490
Jul 2019445
Jun 2019567
May 2019500
Mar 2019433
Feb 2019468
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018425
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018542
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018633
May 2018675
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,233
Jun 20171,233
May 20171,267
Apr 20171,289
Feb 20171,078
Jan 20171,067
Dec 2016979
Nov 2016921
Oct 2016729
Sept 2016692
Aug 2016712
Jul 2016759
Jun 2016712
May 2016740
Apr 2016766
Mar 2016752
Feb 2016758
Jan 2016715
Dec 2015656
Nov 2015536
Oct 2015445
Sept 2015422
Aug 2015404
Jul 2015452
Jun 2015460
May 2015490
Apr 2015459
Mar 2015384
Feb 2015394
Jan 2015430
Dec 2014440
Nov 2014446
Oct 2014410

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2465-74-retail-kg.