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Maize flour in Buhiga

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,522–2,196

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,479–2,329

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,522 and 2,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,479 and 2,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Buhiga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,522 and 2,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,479 and 2,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,491–1,895 1,659 1,397–2,171 2,070 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,462–2,021 1,702 1,373–2,158 2,151 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,522–2,196 1,776 1,432–2,570 2,431 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,510–2,271 1,803 1,421–3,024 2,509 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,479–2,329 1,790 1,379–2,936 2,441 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,667
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,561
May 20261,500
Apr 20261,400
Mar 20261,546
Feb 20262,008
Jan 20262,032
Dec 20251,951
Nov 20251,971
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20251,927
Aug 20251,650
Jul 20251,808
Jun 20251,775
May 20251,529
Apr 20251,544
Mar 20251,698
Feb 20251,811
Jan 20252,321
Dec 20242,577
Nov 20242,446
Oct 20242,112
Sept 20241,970
Aug 20241,848
Jul 20241,578
Jun 20241,459
May 20241,414
Apr 20241,450
Mar 20241,464
Feb 20241,616
Jan 20241,893
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,955
Oct 20232,031
Sept 20231,967
Aug 20231,967
Jul 20231,756
Jun 20231,695
May 20231,609
Apr 20231,680
Mar 20231,844
Feb 20231,717
Dec 20222,130
Nov 20222,094
Oct 20221,674
Sept 20221,555
Aug 20221,512
Jul 20221,400
May 20221,148
Apr 2022946
Mar 2022900
Feb 2022950
Jan 20221,233
Oct 20211,067
Aug 20211,067
May 2021800
Apr 2021837
Mar 2021867
Feb 2021983
Jan 20211,133
Dec 20201,036
Nov 20201,037
Oct 2020925
Sept 2020863
Aug 2020810
Jul 2020812
Jun 2020767
Mar 2020725
Feb 2020733
Jan 20201,257
Dec 20191,310
Oct 20191,039
Aug 2019864
Jul 2019970
Jun 2019683
May 2019608
Mar 2019617
Feb 2019775
Jan 2019833
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018750
Oct 2018638
Sept 2018624
Aug 2018700
Jul 2018658
Jun 2018600
May 2018650
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,267
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,178
Feb 2017966
Jan 20171,233
Dec 20161,062
Nov 2016958
Oct 2016887
Sept 2016764
Aug 2016804
Jul 2016688
Jun 2016583
May 2016583
Apr 2016588
Mar 2016666
Feb 2016679
Jan 2016923
Dec 2015852
Nov 2015813
Oct 2015638
Sept 2015584
Aug 2015581
Jul 2015525
Jun 2015564
May 2015673
Apr 2015664
Mar 2015800
Feb 2015942
Jan 2015944
Dec 2014815
Nov 2014671

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2465-76-retail-kg.