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Oil (vegetable) in Buhiga

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,679–19,640

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,496–20,846

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,679 and 19,640 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,496 and 20,846 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Buhiga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,679 and 19,640 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,496 and 20,846 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,047–18,730 16,564 14,436–20,077 19,406 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,874–18,654 16,421 13,947–21,746 19,183 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,679–19,640 16,682 14,288–24,344 19,028 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,575–20,373 16,671 13,674–23,412 19,122 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,496–20,846 16,977 13,353–22,320 20,581 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,667
Jul 202617,000
Jun 202614,870
May 202615,722
Apr 202617,000
Mar 202615,979
Feb 202616,897
Jan 202619,432
Dec 202517,174
Nov 202517,438
Oct 202517,275
Sept 202516,271
Aug 202519,000
Jul 202516,577
Jun 202516,938
May 202517,583
Apr 202517,125
Mar 202514,130
Feb 202515,304
Jan 202514,816
Dec 202414,576
Nov 202412,667
Oct 202414,300
Sept 202413,933
Aug 202413,175
Jul 202412,722
Jun 202412,464
May 202411,694
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,354
Feb 20249,397
Jan 20249,333
Dec 20239,750
Nov 20239,276
Oct 20237,370
Sept 20239,167
Aug 202310,000
Jul 20239,333
Jun 20239,630
May 20239,706
Apr 20239,457
Mar 20239,097
Feb 20239,000
Dec 20228,879
Nov 20229,353
Oct 20229,573
Sept 20229,250
Aug 20229,521
Jul 20229,000
May 20227,795
Apr 20227,962
Mar 20229,167
Feb 20228,000
Jan 20227,833
Oct 20218,833
Aug 20218,600
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,000
Mar 20215,417
Feb 20214,984
Jan 20215,450
Dec 20204,405
Nov 20204,850
Oct 20204,150
Sept 20204,974
Aug 20204,141
Jul 20205,316
Jun 20204,800
Mar 20204,462
Feb 20204,483
Jan 20204,667
Dec 20194,283
Nov 20194,300
Oct 20194,371
Sept 20194,250
Aug 20194,300
Jul 20194,367
Jun 20194,233
May 20194,300
Mar 20194,300
Feb 20194,267
Jan 20194,433
Dec 20184,250
Nov 20184,200
Oct 20184,425
Sept 20184,740
Aug 20184,450
Jul 20184,350
Jun 20184,533
May 20183,750

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2465-96-retail-kg.