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Food basket in Buhiga

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

21,566–32,834

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

21,664–43,740

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 22,941 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,566 and 32,834 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 21,664 and 43,740 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Buhiga: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 22,941 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,566 and 32,834 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 21,664 and 43,740 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 87,097); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 22,056–28,622 24,866 20,600–31,061
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 21,193–30,957 24,768 19,178–37,740
Nov 2026
Next month		 21,566–32,834 25,652 19,507–45,799
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 21,696–34,263 25,866 19,763–46,762
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 21,664–43,740 26,753 19,383–87,097
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202622,941
Jul 202626,460
Jun 202627,035
May 202631,825
Apr 202636,000
Mar 202631,653
Feb 202633,851
Jan 202626,733
Dec 202526,975
Nov 202523,449
Oct 202524,805
Sept 202525,294
Aug 202523,475
Jul 202531,767
Jun 202532,179
May 202534,185
Apr 202533,779
Mar 202529,225
Feb 202527,635
Jan 202524,589
Dec 202425,124
Nov 202426,851
Oct 202424,918
Sept 202423,869
Aug 202424,816
Jul 202423,987
Jun 202425,710
May 202424,897
Apr 202428,410
Mar 202427,033
Feb 202427,414
Jan 202429,530
Dec 202327,162
Nov 202326,932
Oct 202326,895
Sept 202327,012
Aug 202330,360
Jul 202327,495
Jun 202328,008
May 202332,689
Apr 202332,430
Mar 202331,509
Feb 202326,751
Dec 202222,325
Nov 202222,274
Oct 202218,613
Sept 202218,383
Aug 202219,133
Jul 202218,630
May 202219,793
Apr 202218,246
Mar 202216,057
Feb 202216,411
Jan 202216,374
Oct 202114,700
Aug 202116,339
May 202116,050
Apr 202115,058
Mar 202115,264
Feb 202114,935
Jan 202114,637
Dec 202014,228
Nov 202013,592
Oct 202011,238
Sept 202012,135
Aug 202013,091
Jul 202012,570
Jun 202012,781
Mar 202010,922
Feb 202010,689
Jan 202010,375
Dec 201910,267
Oct 20198,767
Aug 20199,378
Jul 20198,973
Jun 20199,992
May 20199,730
Mar 20198,707
Feb 20199,054
Jan 20199,602
Dec 20189,450
Nov 20189,045
Oct 20188,226
Sept 20188,798
Aug 201810,006
Jul 201811,358
Jun 201811,156
May 201811,477

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620