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Oil (palm) in Cankuzo

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,120–9,725

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

5,876–10,923

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,120 and 9,725 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,876 and 10,923 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Cankuzo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,120 and 9,725 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,876 and 10,923 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,890); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,420–9,021 7,546 6,080–10,034 9,427 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,176–9,364 7,535 5,560–11,349 9,312 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,120–9,725 7,405 5,615–13,761 8,815 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,162–10,518 7,668 5,149–11,433 9,348 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 5,876–10,923 7,534 5,207–17,890 8,959 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202610,000
Aug 20267,200
Jun 20268,000
May 20268,000
Apr 20268,000
Mar 20268,489
Feb 20267,893
Jan 20267,951
Dec 20258,550
Nov 20258,646
Oct 20259,278
Sept 20259,444
Aug 202511,417
Jul 202510,590
Jun 20259,542
May 202510,667
Apr 202510,219
Mar 20258,173
Feb 20256,778
Jan 20256,667
Dec 20246,233
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20245,674
Aug 20245,431
Jul 20245,583
Jun 20245,779
May 20245,789
Apr 20244,950
Mar 20245,225
Feb 20244,959
Jan 20245,230
Dec 20235,250
Nov 20234,625
Oct 20235,400
Sept 20235,573
Aug 20235,203
Jul 20236,509
Jun 20236,833
May 20235,117
Apr 20234,440
Mar 20234,969
Feb 20234,817
Jan 20234,250
Dec 20225,409
Nov 20225,140
Oct 20225,296
Sept 20225,617
Aug 20225,550
Jul 20224,200
Jun 20224,000
May 20224,345
Apr 20223,450
Mar 20223,325
Feb 20224,267
Jan 20223,433
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,817
Mar 20212,876
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,668
Dec 20202,697
Nov 20202,438
Sept 20202,450
Aug 20202,462
Jul 20202,772
Jun 20202,726
Mar 20202,800
Feb 20202,667
Jan 20202,650
Dec 20192,667
Nov 20192,540
Oct 20192,175
Sept 20192,420
Aug 20192,417
Jul 20192,767
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,150
Mar 20192,660
Feb 20192,650
Jan 20192,340
Dec 20182,257
Nov 20182,133
Oct 20182,167
Sept 20182,620
Aug 20183,040
Jul 20183,380
Jun 20183,300
May 20182,933

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2466-62-retail-kg.