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Cassava flour in Cankuzo

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,267–2,014

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,256–2,274

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,267 and 2,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,256 and 2,274 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Cankuzo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,267 and 2,014 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,256 and 2,274 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,002); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,297–1,651 1,465 1,171–1,773 1,733 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,278–1,748 1,477 1,082–2,015 1,728 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,267–2,014 1,479 1,089–2,659 1,923 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,243–2,162 1,495 1,071–3,547 1,873 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,256–2,274 1,504 1,027–4,002 1,779 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,500
Aug 20261,500
Jun 20261,433
May 20261,250
Apr 20261,375
Mar 20261,507
Feb 20261,543
Jan 20261,459
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,439
Oct 20251,456
Sept 20251,550
Aug 20251,650
Jul 20251,554
Jun 20251,685
May 20251,614
Apr 20251,447
Mar 20251,517
Feb 20251,458
Jan 20251,533
Dec 20241,536
Nov 20241,656
Oct 20241,500
Sept 20241,511
Aug 20241,551
Jul 20241,527
Jun 20241,517
May 20241,439
Apr 20241,325
Mar 20241,605
Feb 20241,530
Jan 20241,609
Dec 20231,650
Nov 20231,650
Oct 20231,600
Sept 20231,610
Aug 20231,565
Jul 20231,623
Jun 20231,500
May 20231,533
Apr 20231,669
Mar 20231,722
Feb 20231,567
Jan 20231,500
Dec 20221,342
Nov 20221,341
Oct 20221,106
Sept 20221,033
Aug 20221,033
Jul 20221,050
Jun 20221,000
May 2022925
Apr 2022900
Mar 2022917
Feb 2022917
Jan 2022933
May 2021850
Apr 2021880
Mar 2021829
Feb 2021700
Jan 2021659
Dec 2020725
Nov 2020714
Sept 2020612
Aug 2020594
Jul 2020613
Jun 2020630
Mar 2020651
Feb 2020617
Jan 2020633
Dec 2019663
Oct 2019512
Aug 2019478
Jul 2019482
Jun 2019500
May 2019575
Mar 2019720
Feb 2019662
Jan 2019720
Dec 2018736
Nov 2018700
Oct 2018758
Sept 2018750
Aug 2018830
Jul 2018780
Jun 2018817
May 2018708
Jul 2017829
Jun 2017833
May 2017829
Apr 2017833
Mar 2017826
Feb 2017875
Dec 2016707
Nov 2016702
Oct 2016518
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016511
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016507
May 2016453
Apr 2016467
Mar 2016534
Feb 2016680
Jan 2016583
Dec 2015638
Nov 2015444
Oct 2015334
Sept 2015323
Aug 2015320
Jul 2015329
Jun 2015334
May 2015331
Apr 2015327
Mar 2015331
Feb 2015336
Jan 2015320
Dec 2014323
Nov 2014328
Oct 2014327
Sept 2014323

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2466-74-retail-kg.