Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (vegetable) in Cankuzo

Cankuzo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

9,100–15,408

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

9,199–17,840

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 9,100 and 15,408 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 9,199 and 17,840 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Cankuzo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 9,100 and 15,408 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 9,199 and 17,840 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,518); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,750–13,198 11,093 9,059–14,800 14,021 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 9,589–14,885 11,436 8,628–17,300 14,753 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 9,100–15,408 11,108 8,602–23,785 13,627 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 9,492–16,581 11,515 7,868–16,622 14,864 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 9,199–17,840 11,493 7,507–28,518 14,463 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202610,733
Jun 202613,333
May 202611,500
Apr 202611,250
Mar 202611,044
Feb 202611,071
Jan 202612,000
Dec 202515,900
Nov 202514,250
Oct 202514,639
Sept 202515,611
Aug 202517,000
Jul 202517,128
Jun 202515,281
May 202515,353
Apr 202514,333
Mar 202513,125
Feb 202511,569
Jan 202511,458
Dec 20249,556
Nov 20249,250
Oct 202410,000
Sept 20249,606
Aug 20249,176
Jul 20249,438
Jun 20249,071
May 20249,081
Apr 20247,500
Mar 20248,020
Feb 20248,326
Jan 20247,833
Dec 20238,000
Nov 20236,850
Oct 20237,602
Sept 20237,667
Aug 20237,032
Jul 20237,556
Jun 20237,333
May 20237,000
Apr 20237,125
Mar 20237,222
Feb 20236,750
Jan 20236,500
Dec 20229,273
Nov 20228,652
Oct 20228,692
Sept 20229,139
Aug 20229,500
Jul 20226,500
Jun 202210,000
May 20228,186
Apr 20226,000
Mar 20227,667
Feb 20227,000
Jan 20227,667
May 20216,500
Apr 20216,652
Mar 20215,882
Feb 20216,125
Jan 20216,118
Dec 20204,958
Nov 20204,399
Sept 20203,750
Aug 20204,312
Jul 20205,005
Jun 20204,739
Mar 20204,111
Feb 20204,417
Jan 20204,250
Dec 20194,333
Nov 20193,860
Oct 20194,175
Sept 20194,300
Aug 20194,417
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,167
May 20194,333
Mar 20194,260
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20194,200
Dec 20184,529
Nov 20184,500
Oct 20184,583
Sept 20184,300
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,600
Jun 20184,167
May 20184,367

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2466-96-retail-kg.