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Oil (palm) in Gatabo

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,393–10,271

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,218–11,019

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,393 and 10,271 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,218 and 11,019 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gatabo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,393 and 10,271 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,218 and 11,019 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,020); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,871–9,815 8,610 7,301–10,594 10,006 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,510–9,871 8,310 6,760–12,412 9,510 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,393–10,271 8,312 6,800–12,276 9,299 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,380–10,560 8,272 6,125–12,939 9,406 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,218–11,019 8,526 5,935–15,020 9,724 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,177
Jul 20268,667
Jun 20268,867
May 20269,333
Apr 20268,667
Mar 20268,000
Feb 20268,000
Jan 20268,000
Dec 20258,333
Nov 20258,333
Oct 202510,417
Sept 202510,222
Aug 202510,778
Jul 202511,462
Jun 20259,224
May 202510,615
Apr 202511,092
Mar 20259,833
Feb 20258,300
Jan 20257,127
Dec 20246,328
Nov 20246,115
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,000
Aug 20246,058
Jul 20246,056
Jun 20246,062
May 20246,070
Apr 20245,275
Mar 20245,168
Feb 20245,509
Jan 20245,689
Dec 20235,200
Nov 20235,650
Oct 20236,312
Sept 20236,023
Aug 20236,212
Jul 202314,744Data error
Jun 20235,715
May 20235,258
Apr 20234,981
Mar 20234,673
Feb 20234,435
Dec 20224,223
Nov 20224,000
Oct 20224,050
Sept 20224,409
Aug 20224,960
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,594
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,475
Feb 20223,400
Jan 20223,444
Oct 20213,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,806
Mar 20212,550
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,483
Dec 20202,446
Nov 20202,313
Sept 20202,246
Aug 20202,490
Jul 20202,513
Jun 20202,533
Mar 20202,423
Feb 20202,420
Jan 20202,567
Dec 20192,467
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,083
Sept 20192,480
Aug 20192,717
Jul 20192,733
Jun 20192,840
May 20192,683
Mar 20192,260
Feb 20192,333
Jan 20192,083
Dec 20182,050
Nov 20182,067
Oct 20181,886
Sept 20182,433
Aug 20183,040
Jul 20183,100
Jun 20183,117
May 20182,700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2467-62-retail-kg.