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Cassava flour in Gatabo

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,318–1,947

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,349–2,109

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,318 and 1,947 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,349 and 2,109 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gatabo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,318 and 1,947 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,349 and 2,109 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,870); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,392–1,713 1,513 1,245–1,794 1,762 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,345–1,827 1,508 1,176–1,970 1,659 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,318–1,947 1,505 1,183–2,102 1,864 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,300–2,061 1,508 1,103–2,870 1,707 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,349–2,109 1,571 1,148–2,427 1,770 –
Price history (123 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,539
Jul 20261,633
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,517
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,500
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,450
Dec 20251,400
Nov 20251,383
Oct 20251,617
Sept 20251,500
Aug 20251,600
Jul 20251,518
Jun 20251,526
May 20251,612
Apr 20251,372
Mar 20251,431
Feb 20251,445
Jan 20251,428
Dec 20241,706
Nov 20241,577
Oct 20241,575
Sept 20241,730
Aug 20241,532
Jul 20241,517
Jun 20241,488
May 20241,523
Apr 20241,700
Mar 20241,697
Feb 20241,761
Jan 20241,733
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,775
Oct 20231,742
Sept 20231,741
Aug 20231,733
Jul 20231,733
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,818
Apr 20231,894
Mar 20231,844
Feb 20231,448
Dec 20221,358
Nov 20221,297
Oct 20221,025
Sept 20221,099
Aug 20221,142
Jun 20221,000
May 20221,033
Apr 20221,046
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,000
Jan 2022956
Oct 2021800
May 2021850
Apr 2021743
Mar 2021700
Feb 2021833
Jan 2021883
Dec 2020750
Nov 2020843
Sept 2020665
Aug 2020628
Jul 2020691
Jun 2020642
Mar 2020637
Feb 2020560
Jan 2020675
Dec 2019531
Oct 2019484
Aug 2019446
Jul 2019470
Jun 2019580
May 2019558
Mar 2019560
Feb 2019533
Jan 2019517
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018493
Sept 2018483
Aug 2018540
Jul 2018625
Jun 2018675
May 2018742
Jan 2018852
Nov 2017957
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,000
Jul 20171,034
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,177
Apr 20171,175
Mar 20171,160
Feb 20171,033
Jan 20171,000
Dec 2016912
Nov 2016863
Oct 2016711
Sept 2016700
Aug 2016662
Jul 2016667
Jun 2016657
May 2016719
Apr 2016696
Mar 2016687
Feb 2016692
Jan 2016650
Dec 2015568
Nov 2015533
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015373
Aug 2015413
Jul 2015457
Jun 2015463
May 2015500
Apr 2015495
Mar 2015469
Feb 2015413
Jan 2015440
Dec 2014494

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2467-74-retail-kg.