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Maize flour in Gatabo

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,644–2,234

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,582–2,251

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,644 and 2,234 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,582 and 2,251 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gatabo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,644 and 2,234 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,582 and 2,251 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,625–1,923 1,727 1,523–2,028 2,270 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,591–2,021 1,776 1,489–2,160 2,338 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,644–2,234 1,886 1,487–2,417 2,610 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,640–2,356 1,965 1,427–2,977 2,678 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,582–2,251 1,867 1,354–2,377 2,516 –
Price history (123 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,686
Jul 20261,767
Jun 20261,700
May 20261,656
Apr 20261,667
Mar 20261,573
Feb 20261,904
Jan 20262,100
Dec 20252,033
Nov 20251,967
Oct 20251,938
Sept 20251,915
Aug 20251,850
Jul 20251,872
Jun 20251,640
May 20251,531
Apr 20251,610
Mar 20251,626
Feb 20252,252
Jan 20252,564
Dec 20242,677
Nov 20242,323
Oct 20242,242
Sept 20242,056
Aug 20241,948
Jul 20241,656
Jun 20241,522
May 20241,512
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,867
Feb 20241,931
Jan 20242,400
Dec 20232,133
Nov 20232,175
Oct 20232,000
Sept 20232,159
Aug 20232,133
Jul 20231,856
Jun 20231,882
May 20231,823
Apr 20231,847
Mar 20231,892
Feb 20231,735
Dec 20222,264
Nov 20222,262
Oct 20221,619
Sept 20221,616
Aug 20221,650
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,125
Apr 20221,046
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,138
Jan 20221,300
Oct 20211,200
May 2021900
Apr 2021861
Mar 2021850
Feb 20211,067
Jan 20211,167
Dec 20201,204
Nov 20201,166
Sept 2020985
Aug 2020907
Jul 2020900
Jun 2020750
Mar 2020762
Feb 2020800
Jan 20201,189
Dec 20191,275
Oct 20191,041
Aug 2019817
Jul 2019908
Jun 2019680
May 2019683
Mar 2019590
Feb 2019783
Jan 2019867
Dec 2018842
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018714
Sept 2018642
Aug 2018680
Jul 2018700
Jun 2018667
May 2018683
Jan 2018914
Nov 20171,120
Oct 20171,166
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,179
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,104
Mar 20171,060
Feb 20171,133
Jan 20171,217
Dec 20161,200
Nov 20161,150
Oct 2016970
Sept 2016850
Aug 2016825
Jul 2016708
Jun 2016640
May 2016604
Apr 2016650
Mar 2016693
Feb 2016708
Jan 2016875
Dec 2015873
Nov 2015875
Oct 2015654
Sept 2015680
Aug 2015633
Jul 2015587
Jun 2015554
May 2015525
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015538
Feb 2015517
Jan 2015575
Dec 2014606

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2467-76-retail-kg.