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Oil (vegetable) in Gatabo

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,040–19,282

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,546–19,140

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,040 and 19,282 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,546 and 19,140 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gatabo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,040 and 19,282 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,546 and 19,140 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 25,579); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,124–17,679 15,795 13,518–19,521 17,973 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,136–18,196 15,575 13,285–22,298 18,221 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,040–19,282 15,483 12,797–25,358 17,494 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,919–19,474 15,582 12,829–25,579 17,854 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,546–19,140 15,785 12,627–20,121 18,389 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,771
Jul 202617,667
Jun 202615,500
May 202615,000
Apr 202618,000
Mar 202614,802
Feb 202615,423
Jan 202614,000
Dec 202517,167
Nov 202516,333
Oct 202517,417
Sept 202517,741
Aug 202516,611
Jul 202517,179
Jun 202515,948
May 202516,231
Apr 202515,975
Mar 202515,225
Feb 202513,667
Jan 202514,325
Dec 202414,167
Nov 202413,000
Oct 202412,825
Sept 202413,667
Aug 202411,883
Jul 202411,722
Jun 202411,906
May 20249,377
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,113
Feb 20249,056
Jan 202410,556
Dec 20239,333
Nov 20239,875
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20239,957
Aug 20239,439
Jul 20238,667
Jun 20238,848
May 20239,578
Apr 20239,688
Mar 20239,645
Feb 20239,600
Dec 20229,121
Nov 20229,265
Oct 20229,219
Sept 20229,420
Aug 20229,667
Jun 20229,000
May 20228,794
Apr 20229,000
Mar 20228,750
Feb 20229,372
Jan 20228,906
Oct 20219,000
May 20216,500
Apr 20216,208
Mar 20216,000
Feb 20216,917
Jan 20216,833
Dec 20205,269
Nov 20205,856
Sept 20205,615
Aug 20204,900
Jul 20205,055
Jun 20205,583
Mar 20205,792
Feb 20205,600
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20195,583
Nov 20195,100
Oct 20195,250
Sept 20195,400
Aug 20195,250
Jul 20195,417
Jun 20195,600
May 20195,417
Mar 20195,100
Feb 20194,333
Jan 20195,500
Dec 20185,583
Nov 20185,083
Oct 20185,286
Sept 20185,167
Aug 20185,400
Jul 20185,200
Jun 20185,167
May 20184,667

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2467-96-retail-kg.