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Food basket in Gatabo

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,548–35,424

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,837–39,669

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,733 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,548 and 35,424 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,837 and 39,669 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gatabo: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 29,733 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,548 and 35,424 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,837 and 39,669 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 27,518–31,946 29,403 25,796–33,375
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,744–33,806 29,337 24,913–36,368
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,548–35,424 29,827 24,790–38,455
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,464–38,456 30,126 23,967–49,430
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,837–39,669 31,013 24,564–46,934
Cost history (85 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202629,733
Jul 202630,440
Jun 202628,798
May 202632,860
Apr 202631,480
Mar 202629,153
Feb 202628,484
Jan 202627,420
Dec 202526,990
Nov 202526,700
Oct 202531,478
Sept 202529,500
Aug 202531,177
Jul 202530,785
Jun 202528,885
May 202531,135
Apr 202529,563
Mar 202530,156
Feb 202528,540
Jan 202527,628
Dec 202431,355
Nov 202429,041
Oct 202428,674
Sept 202430,322
Aug 202427,567
Jul 202426,658
Jun 202426,106
May 202426,548
Apr 202429,800
Mar 202429,187
Feb 202430,038
Jan 202429,945
Dec 202330,168
Nov 202330,328
Oct 202330,378
Sept 202329,893
Aug 202329,701
Jun 202330,954
May 202331,004
Apr 202332,372
Mar 202331,705
Feb 202326,554
Dec 202223,066
Nov 202222,274
Oct 202218,132
Sept 202219,123
Aug 202219,688
Jun 202216,905
May 202218,348
Apr 202218,097
Mar 202216,603
Feb 202216,686
Jan 202215,876
Oct 202113,875
May 202114,700
Apr 202113,510
Mar 202113,040
Feb 202114,425
Jan 202114,953
Dec 202013,658
Nov 202014,588
Sept 202012,068
Aug 202011,622
Jul 202012,174
Jun 202011,488
Mar 202011,866
Feb 202010,946
Jan 202012,014
Dec 201910,265
Oct 20199,170
Aug 20198,851
Jul 20199,462
Jun 201910,432
May 201910,681
Mar 201910,691
Feb 201910,110
Jan 20199,948
Dec 20189,695
Nov 20189,526
Oct 20189,195
Sept 20189,399
Aug 201810,360
Jul 201811,409
Jun 201812,110
May 201812,863

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620