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Oil (palm) in Gisuru

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,226–10,313

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,127–11,334

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,226 and 10,313 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,127 and 11,334 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gisuru: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,226 and 10,313 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,127 and 11,334 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 21,873); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,390–10,013 8,630 7,039–11,033 10,196 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,425–9,845 8,002 6,203–14,518 8,305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,226–10,313 7,704 6,103–17,533 7,862 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,257–10,953 7,751 6,179–21,050 8,142 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,127–11,334 7,719 5,588–21,873 8,052 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,333
Jun 20269,167
May 20269,725
Apr 20269,583
Mar 20267,600
Feb 20269,095
Jan 20269,400
Dec 20258,667
Nov 20258,750
Oct 20259,735
Sept 202510,438
Aug 20256,000
Jun 20259,067
May 202510,269
Apr 202510,000
Mar 20259,000
Feb 20258,310
Jan 20257,278
Dec 20246,444
Nov 20245,182
Oct 20245,045
Sept 20246,256
Aug 20246,154
Jul 20245,889
Jun 20246,271
May 20245,493
Apr 20245,500
Mar 20244,920
Feb 20244,742
Jan 20244,938
Dec 20235,333
Nov 20235,167
Oct 20237,146
Sept 20236,896
Aug 20235,985
Jul 20235,417
Jun 20235,215
May 20235,883
Apr 20235,331
Mar 20235,162
Feb 20235,000
Jan 20234,400
Dec 20224,213
Nov 20224,250
Oct 20224,693
Sept 20225,427
Aug 20226,912
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,926
Apr 20225,500
Mar 20224,333
Feb 20223,949
Jan 20224,594
Oct 20214,500
Sept 20215,375
May 20213,833
Apr 20213,523
Mar 20213,656
Feb 20213,875
Jan 20213,539
Dec 20203,657
Nov 20203,708
Oct 20203,250
Sept 20203,323
Aug 20203,212
Jul 20203,446
Jun 20203,348
Mar 20203,750
Feb 20204,100
Jan 20203,500
Dec 20193,250
Nov 20192,883
Oct 20193,100
Jul 20193,917
Jun 20193,000
Mar 20192,900
Feb 20192,483
Jan 20192,160
Dec 20183,100
Nov 20183,400
Oct 20183,133
Sept 20186,600
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20185,450
May 20184,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2468-62-retail-kg.