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Cassava flour in Gisuru

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,143–1,933

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,150–2,150

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,143 and 1,933 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,150 and 2,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gisuru: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,143 and 1,933 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,150 and 2,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,114); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,184–1,683 1,411 1,077–1,892 1,476 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,132–1,746 1,400 959–2,190 1,409 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,143–1,933 1,397 1,078–2,637 1,551 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,163–2,083 1,433 1,043–3,093 1,636 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,150–2,150 1,447 1,058–3,114 1,570 –
Price history (122 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,458
Jun 20261,333
May 20261,275
Apr 20261,167
Mar 20261,383
Feb 20261,381
Jan 20261,350
Dec 20251,417
Nov 20251,427
Oct 20251,412
Sept 20251,616
Aug 20251,500
Jun 20251,840
May 20251,915
Apr 20252,200
Mar 20251,825
Feb 20251,776
Jan 20251,528
Dec 20241,702
Nov 20241,494
Oct 20241,318
Sept 20241,500
Aug 20241,500
Jul 20241,500
Jun 20241,531
May 20241,604
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,843
Feb 20241,627
Jan 20241,688
Dec 20231,500
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,500
Sept 20231,456
Aug 20231,500
Jul 20231,583
Jun 20231,327
May 20231,317
Apr 20231,214
Mar 20231,221
Feb 20231,441
Jan 20231,200
Dec 20221,267
Nov 20221,100
Oct 2022647
Sept 2022721
Aug 2022696
Jun 2022800
May 20221,109
Apr 2022633
Mar 2022617
Feb 2022526
Jan 2022553
Oct 2021800
Sept 2021725
May 2021583
Apr 2021541
Mar 2021624
Feb 2021700
Jan 2021645
Dec 2020674
Nov 2020562
Oct 2020575
Sept 2020539
Aug 2020518
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020489
Mar 2020525
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020799
Dec 2019645
Oct 2019457
Jul 2019476
Jun 2019333
Mar 2019480
Feb 2019483
Jan 2019460
Dec 2018410
Nov 2018360
Oct 2018392
Sept 2018320
Aug 2018520
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018658
May 2018483
Oct 20171,283
Sept 20171,327
Aug 20171,310
Jul 20171,280
May 20171,330
Apr 20171,315
Mar 20171,276
Feb 20171,398
Jan 20171,318
Dec 20161,260
Nov 20161,187
Oct 2016854
Sept 2016810
Aug 2016689
Jul 2016692
Jun 2016741
May 2016753
Apr 2016816
Mar 2016830
Feb 20161,085
Jan 2016918
Dec 2015811
Nov 2015742
Oct 2015555
Sept 2015486
Aug 2015529
Jul 2015521
Jun 2015604
May 2015546
Apr 2015550
Mar 2015533
Feb 2015538
Jan 2015462
Dec 2014481
Nov 2014575
Oct 2014630
Sept 2014633

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2468-74-retail-kg.