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Maize flour in Gisuru

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,833–2,738

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,809–2,985

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,833 and 2,738 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,809 and 2,985 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gisuru: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,833 and 2,738 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,809 and 2,985 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,369); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,854–2,214 2,007 1,632–2,512 2,368 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,737–2,416 2,000 1,463–3,092 2,362 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,833–2,738 2,101 1,511–3,742 2,650 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,836–2,949 2,101 1,557–5,369 2,678 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,809–2,985 2,153 1,506–4,855 2,780 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20262,000
May 20261,857
Apr 20261,542
Mar 20261,917
Feb 20262,214
Jan 20262,000
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20252,000
Jun 20252,000
May 20251,946
Apr 20252,000
Mar 20252,344
Feb 20252,826
Jan 20252,567
Dec 20242,371
Nov 20242,585
Oct 20242,212
Sept 20242,311
Aug 20241,928
Jul 20241,889
Jun 20241,754
May 20241,511
Apr 20241,933
Mar 20242,088
Feb 20242,500
Jan 20241,925
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,333
Oct 20232,100
Sept 20232,269
Aug 20232,024
Jul 20231,900
Jun 20231,636
May 20231,700
Apr 20231,562
Mar 20232,097
Feb 20232,452
Jan 20232,000
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20221,900
Oct 20229,078Data error
Sept 20221,869
Aug 20221,587
Jun 20221,067
May 20221,090
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,033
Feb 20221,218
Jan 20221,200
Sept 2021925
May 2021750
Apr 2021741
Mar 2021931
Feb 20211,000
Jan 20211,071
Dec 2020985
Nov 2020942
Oct 2020725
Sept 2020820
Aug 2020998
Jul 2020896
Jun 2020831
Mar 2020725
Feb 20201,030
Jan 20201,183
Dec 20191,133
Oct 20191,070
Jul 2019794
Jun 2019800
Mar 2019820
Feb 20191,125
Jan 20191,100
Dec 2018790
Nov 2018720
Oct 2018633
Sept 2018640
Aug 2018660
Jul 2018708
Jun 2018708
May 2018658
Oct 20171,011
Sept 2017993
Aug 20171,029
Jul 20171,086
May 2017993
Apr 2017903
Mar 20171,103
Feb 20171,253
Jan 20171,177
Dec 20161,132
Nov 2016984
Oct 2016822
Sept 2016764
Aug 2016730
Jul 2016720
Jun 2016640
May 2016578
Apr 2016582
Mar 2016744
Feb 2016971
Jan 2016878
Dec 2015828
Nov 2015784
Oct 2015543
Sept 2015525
Aug 2015533
Jul 2015463
Jun 2015490
May 2015470
Apr 2015468
Mar 2015490
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014485
Nov 2014480
Oct 2014468
Sept 2014500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2468-76-retail-kg.