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Oil (vegetable) in Gisuru

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,567–19,418

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,116–20,578

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,567 and 19,418 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,116 and 20,578 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gisuru: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,567 and 19,418 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,116 and 20,578 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 27,360); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,714–17,232 15,328 12,738–17,788 18,670 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,612–17,956 15,507 12,360–20,187 18,678 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,567–19,418 15,438 11,977–27,360 18,319 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,400–20,037 15,334 11,592–26,785 18,089 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,116–20,578 15,265 11,303–26,627 18,614 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,000
Jun 202616,333
May 202615,961
Apr 202615,417
Mar 202616,633
Feb 202615,238
Jan 202615,125
Dec 202515,750
Nov 202516,844
Oct 202518,059
Sept 202518,875
Aug 202511,000
Jun 202513,600
May 202514,731
Apr 202514,500
Mar 202513,781
Feb 202513,798
Jan 202514,139
Dec 202413,600
Nov 202413,062
Oct 202413,576
Sept 202412,444
Aug 202412,385
Jul 202412,667
Jun 202412,312
May 202410,417
Apr 20249,200
Mar 20249,278
Feb 20249,291
Jan 20249,750
Dec 20239,867
Nov 20239,867
Oct 20239,908
Sept 202310,283
Aug 202310,461
Jul 20239,950
Jun 20239,897
May 20239,600
Apr 20239,835
Mar 20238,529
Feb 20239,156
Jan 20239,700
Dec 20229,700
Nov 20229,250
Oct 20229,958
Sept 20228,771
Aug 202210,647
Jun 20229,667
May 20229,471
Apr 20228,667
Mar 20228,333
Feb 20228,462
Jan 20228,125
Oct 20217,000
Sept 20216,750
May 20215,000
Apr 20215,125
Mar 20214,844
Feb 20214,500
Jan 20214,804
Dec 20204,343
Nov 20204,375
Oct 20204,250
Sept 20204,688
Aug 20204,740
Jul 20204,902
Jun 20205,000
Mar 20204,500
Feb 20204,400
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,500
Nov 20194,583
Oct 20195,000
Jul 20194,500
Jun 20195,000
Mar 20194,200
Feb 20194,600
Jan 20194,600
Dec 20184,600
Nov 20185,000
Oct 20184,667
Sept 20185,000
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20184,767
Jun 20184,100
May 20184,333

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2468-96-retail-kg.