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Oil (palm) in Gitaza

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,955–11,279

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,751–11,745

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,955 and 11,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,751 and 11,745 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gitaza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,955 and 11,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,751 and 11,745 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 19,110); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,367–9,855 8,496 7,170–11,250 9,469 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,932–9,986 8,304 6,441–14,783 8,805 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,955–11,279 8,638 6,594–16,230 9,396 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,811–11,330 8,515 6,465–16,652 8,970 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,751–11,745 8,462 6,071–19,110 8,960 –
Price history (87 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,667
Jun 20269,083
May 20269,235
Apr 202610,292
Mar 20266,500
Feb 202610,583
Jan 20269,167
Dec 20259,312
Nov 202511,812
Oct 202511,667
Sept 202510,719
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202511,576
Jun 202510,500
May 202510,821
Apr 202510,148
Mar 20259,578
Feb 202511,073
Jan 20255,167
Dec 20246,025
Nov 20245,786
Oct 20245,067
Sept 20245,172
Aug 20244,885
Jul 20245,250
Jun 20245,583
May 20245,333
Apr 20244,000
Mar 20245,000
Feb 20244,378
Jan 20244,402
Dec 20234,000
Nov 20234,750
Oct 20234,771
Sept 20235,062
Aug 20235,350
Jul 20235,233
Jun 20234,818
May 20235,118
Apr 20234,675
Mar 20234,354
Feb 20234,354
Dec 20223,773
Nov 20223,550
Oct 20223,000
Sept 20223,324
Aug 20224,367
Jul 20225,167
May 20223,677
Apr 20223,350
Mar 20223,185
Feb 20223,400
Jan 20223,133
Oct 20212,750
Apr 20212,367
Mar 20212,243
Feb 20212,350
Jan 20212,233
Dec 20202,052
Nov 20202,187
Oct 20202,150
Sept 20202,045
Aug 20201,878
Jul 20202,210
Jun 20202,278
Mar 20202,424
Feb 20202,140
Jan 20201,933
Dec 20192,067
Nov 20191,917
Oct 20191,933
Sept 20192,517
Aug 20192,567
Jul 20192,700
Jun 20192,600
May 20192,583
Mar 20192,450
Feb 20192,300
Jan 20192,033
Dec 20181,983
Nov 20182,040
Oct 20182,000
Sept 20182,167
Aug 20182,800
Jul 20182,940
Jun 20182,950
May 20182,660

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2469-62-retail-kg.