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Cassava flour in Gitaza

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,504–2,348

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,449–2,603

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,504 and 2,348 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,449 and 2,603 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gitaza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,504 and 2,348 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,449 and 2,603 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,250); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,503–1,973 1,720 1,361–2,198 2,003 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,454–2,141 1,751 1,310–2,746 1,949 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,504–2,348 1,766 1,364–3,104 2,288 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,440–2,536 1,752 1,330–4,250 2,185 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,449–2,603 1,787 1,286–3,990 2,037 –
Price history (119 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,733
Jun 20261,875
May 20261,843
Apr 20262,138
Mar 20262,175
Feb 20261,720
Jan 20261,739
Dec 20251,734
Nov 20251,653
Oct 20251,752
Sept 20251,691
Aug 20252,041
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20251,821
May 20252,045
Apr 20251,778
Mar 20251,653
Feb 20252,218
Jan 20252,206
Dec 20241,975
Nov 20242,097
Oct 20242,053
Sept 20241,839
Aug 20241,847
Jul 20242,000
Jun 20241,667
May 20241,892
Apr 20242,350
Mar 20241,917
Feb 20241,961
Jan 20241,942
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,942
Sept 20231,895
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20232,023
Jun 20232,032
May 20231,856
Apr 20231,969
Mar 20231,994
Feb 20231,829
Dec 20221,588
Nov 20221,660
Oct 20221,167
Sept 20221,274
Aug 20221,200
Jul 20221,167
May 20221,363
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,136
Feb 20221,100
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021900
Apr 20211,018
Mar 20211,009
Feb 20211,000
Jan 2021958
Dec 20201,176
Nov 20201,033
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020765
Aug 2020867
Jul 2020806
Jun 2020800
Mar 2020814
Feb 2020890
Jan 2020781
Dec 2019671
Oct 2019720
Aug 2019689
Jul 2019769
Jun 20191,000
May 2019800
Mar 2019767
Feb 2019580
Jan 2019825
Dec 2018750
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018850
Sept 2018733
Aug 2018810
Jul 2018870
Jun 2018850
May 2018840
Jul 20171,316
Jun 20171,316
May 20171,329
Apr 20171,354
Mar 20171,320
Feb 20171,275
Dec 20161,093
Nov 2016972
Oct 2016906
Sept 2016866
Aug 2016854
Jul 2016783
Jun 2016850
May 2016954
Apr 2016920
Mar 2016939
Feb 2016925
Jan 2016910
Dec 2015829
Nov 2015736
Oct 2015581
Sept 2015583
Aug 2015646
Jul 2015653
Jun 2015658
May 2015740
Apr 2015708
Mar 2015646
Feb 2015642
Jan 2015650
Dec 2014658
Nov 2014673
Oct 2014647
Sept 2014767

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2469-74-retail-kg.