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Maize flour in Gitaza

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,400–3,282

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,337–3,583

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,400 and 3,282 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,337 and 3,583 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gitaza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,400 and 3,282 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,337 and 3,583 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,800); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,362–2,735 2,528 2,287–3,084 3,178 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,338–2,853 2,603 2,319–3,660 3,233 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,400–3,282 2,640 2,202–4,729 3,403 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,419–3,431 2,767 2,229–5,159 3,700 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,337–3,583 2,711 1,993–5,800 3,518 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,500
Jun 20262,233
May 20262,304
Apr 20262,208
Mar 20262,238
Feb 20262,494
Jan 20262,581
Dec 20252,512
Nov 20252,556
Oct 20252,506
Sept 20252,434
Aug 20252,500
Jul 20252,500
Jun 20252,355
May 20252,088
Apr 20252,435
Mar 20252,267
Feb 20253,159
Jan 20253,458
Dec 20243,500
Nov 20242,574
Oct 20242,402
Sept 20242,472
Aug 20242,483
Jul 20242,088
Jun 20242,033
May 20241,850
Apr 20242,050
Mar 20242,075
Feb 20242,500
Jan 20242,500
Dec 20232,300
Nov 20232,500
Oct 20232,488
Sept 20232,452
Aug 20232,295
Jul 20232,260
Jun 20232,200
May 20232,076
Apr 20232,369
Mar 20232,442
Feb 20232,471
Dec 20222,500
Nov 20222,453
Oct 20222,211
Sept 20221,963
Aug 20221,723
Jul 20221,750
May 20221,612
Apr 20221,600
Mar 20221,600
Feb 20221,600
Jan 20221,500
Oct 20211,350
Apr 20211,236
Mar 20211,286
Feb 20211,388
Jan 20211,325
Dec 20201,467
Nov 20201,280
Oct 20201,267
Sept 20201,243
Aug 20201,128
Jul 20201,123
Jun 20201,144
Mar 20201,162
Feb 20201,360
Jan 20201,405
Dec 20191,443
Oct 20191,322
Aug 20191,064
Jul 20191,222
Jun 2019900
May 2019917
Mar 20191,017
Feb 2019950
Jan 20191,117
Dec 20181,067
Nov 2018980
Oct 2018940
Sept 2018933
Aug 2018890
Jul 2018870
Jun 2018900
May 2018880

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2469-76-retail-kg.