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Oil (vegetable) in Gitaza

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,124–19,566

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,704–20,269

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,124 and 19,566 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,704 and 20,269 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gitaza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,124 and 19,566 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,704 and 20,269 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,280–18,073 15,887 13,667–18,657 18,474 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,043–18,909 16,155 12,802–19,441 19,205 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,124–19,566 16,277 13,565–22,510 19,779 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,964–20,586 16,106 12,953–23,918 19,765 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,704–20,269 16,000 13,184–22,034 20,062 –
Price history (87 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,667
Jun 202617,083
May 202616,912
Apr 202619,500
Mar 202617,375
Feb 202617,083
Jan 202616,278
Dec 202515,500
Nov 202516,438
Oct 202516,896
Sept 202516,844
Aug 202517,176
Jul 202518,424
Jun 202518,189
May 202517,500
Apr 202515,991
Mar 202516,444
Feb 202514,344
Jan 202513,931
Dec 202416,062
Nov 202414,493
Oct 202412,637
Sept 202410,722
Aug 202410,617
Jul 202411,062
Jun 202410,833
May 202411,667
Apr 202410,250
Mar 202411,167
Feb 20249,611
Jan 20249,635
Dec 202310,500
Nov 20238,500
Oct 202310,250
Sept 202310,512
Aug 20239,700
Jul 202310,517
Jun 20239,636
May 20239,309
Apr 20239,625
Mar 20239,167
Feb 20239,292
Dec 20229,106
Nov 20229,700
Oct 20228,778
Sept 20228,801
Aug 20228,083
Jul 20228,667
May 20228,383
Apr 20228,500
Mar 20228,551
Feb 20229,000
Jan 20228,667
Oct 20217,750
Apr 20215,788
Mar 20215,176
Feb 20215,250
Jan 20215,458
Dec 20204,954
Nov 20206,133
Oct 20204,350
Sept 20204,338
Aug 20204,281
Jul 20204,298
Jun 20204,444
Mar 20204,111
Feb 20204,000
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20193,883
Nov 20193,867
Oct 20194,000
Sept 20194,017
Aug 20194,217
Jul 20194,050
Jun 20194,267
May 20194,217
Mar 20194,283
Feb 20195,100
Jan 20194,250
Dec 20184,250
Nov 20184,200
Oct 20184,200
Sept 20184,167
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,100
Jun 20184,667
May 20184,600

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2469-96-retail-kg.