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Food basket in Gitaza

Bujumbura Rural, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

29,851–42,999

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

28,443–47,562

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,300 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,851 and 42,999 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,443 and 47,562 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gitaza: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,300 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 29,851 and 42,999 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,443 and 47,562 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 69,835); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,635–35,806 32,319 27,864–38,597
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 29,147–38,784 32,892 27,181–46,573
Nov 2026
Next month		 29,851–42,999 33,876 27,906–52,935
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 28,406–46,102 33,801 26,784–69,835
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 28,443–47,562 34,276 25,841–64,851
Cost history (85 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202632,300
Jun 202634,468
May 202637,091
Apr 202641,309
Mar 202636,885
Feb 202633,696
Jan 202632,557
Dec 202532,730
Nov 202533,388
Oct 202534,340
Sept 202532,853
Aug 202537,655
Jul 202537,578
Jun 202534,880
May 202537,523
Apr 202534,609
Mar 202532,489
Feb 202540,650
Jan 202536,377
Dec 202434,742
Nov 202435,110
Oct 202433,828
Sept 202431,386
Aug 202430,910
Jul 202432,775
Jun 202428,923
May 202432,350
Apr 202436,270
Mar 202431,670
Feb 202431,384
Jan 202431,167
Dec 202331,260
Nov 202332,588
Oct 202331,969
Sept 202331,422
Aug 202332,858
Jul 202332,595
Jun 202333,319
May 202331,916
Apr 202333,674
Mar 202333,184
Feb 202330,234
Dec 202225,784
Nov 202226,630
Oct 202219,590
Sept 202220,579
Aug 202219,935
Jul 202220,205
May 202221,939
Apr 202220,132
Mar 202218,016
Feb 202217,766
Jan 202217,462
Oct 202114,858
Apr 202116,764
Mar 202116,500
Feb 202116,186
Jan 202115,426
Dec 202018,494
Nov 202017,053
Oct 202014,023
Sept 202013,195
Aug 202014,135
Jul 202013,380
Jun 202013,312
Mar 202013,767
Feb 202014,281
Jan 202012,892
Dec 201911,780
Oct 201912,254
Aug 201912,094
Jul 201913,336
Jun 201915,954
May 201913,647
Mar 201912,976
Feb 201910,383
Jan 201913,433
Dec 201812,708
Nov 201813,222
Oct 201813,884
Sept 201812,530
Aug 201813,740
Jul 201814,359
Jun 201813,976
May 201813,859

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620