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Oil (palm) in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,440–12,740

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,773–13,632

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,440 and 12,740 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,773 and 13,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Giteranyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,440 and 12,740 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,773 and 13,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,040); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,532–11,862 10,492 8,869–12,334 12,479 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 9,228–12,218 10,282 8,429–13,508 11,630 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,440–12,740 9,957 8,304–16,952 11,077 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,300–12,644 9,780 8,123–17,279 10,878 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,773–13,632 10,208 7,764–18,040 11,559 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,667
Jun 202613,000
May 202610,696
Apr 202610,800
Mar 20269,889
Feb 202610,433
Jan 202611,833
Dec 202511,167
Nov 202510,250
Oct 202512,000
Sept 202513,500
Aug 20259,333
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202511,375
May 202512,000
Apr 202510,200
Mar 20259,938
Feb 20258,438
Jan 20257,853
Dec 20246,445
Nov 20246,513
Oct 20247,312
Sept 20246,889
Aug 20246,570
Jul 20247,267
Jun 20248,000
May 20247,922
Apr 20247,625
Mar 20245,967
Feb 20246,241
Jan 20245,975
Nov 20235,583
Oct 20236,300
Sept 20236,893
Aug 20236,025
Jul 20235,309
Jun 20234,518
May 20235,168
Apr 20234,950
Mar 20235,000
Feb 20234,800
Dec 20224,585
Nov 20224,850
Oct 20225,000
Sept 20225,100
Aug 20225,117
May 20225,050
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,033
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20224,150
Oct 20214,000
Apr 20212,900
Mar 20212,667
Feb 20212,717
Jan 20212,717
Dec 20202,617
Nov 20202,783
Oct 20202,867
Sept 20202,933
Aug 20202,800
Jul 20202,900
Jun 20202,983
Mar 20202,450
Feb 20202,600
Jan 20202,525
Dec 20192,583
Nov 20192,617
Oct 20192,500
Sept 20192,667
Aug 20192,800
Jul 20192,900
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,767
Mar 20192,620
Feb 20192,417
Jan 20192,483
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,717
Oct 20182,650
Sept 20183,220
Aug 20183,283
Jul 20183,220
Jun 20183,229
May 20182,880

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2470-62-retail-kg.