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Maize (white) in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,331–2,111

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,306–2,527

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,331 and 2,111 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,306 and 2,527 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Giteranyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,331 and 2,111 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,306 and 2,527 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,980); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,356–1,709 1,528 1,255–2,061 2,001 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,357–1,973 1,611 1,180–2,630 2,116 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,331–2,111 1,577 1,159–3,604 2,027 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,324–2,288 1,588 1,125–4,963 1,990 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,306–2,527 1,616 1,079–5,980 2,075 –
Price history (110 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,517
Jun 20261,575
May 20261,268
Apr 20261,060
Mar 20261,199
Feb 20261,335
Jan 20261,717
Dec 20251,717
Nov 20251,740
Oct 20251,656
Sept 20251,735
Aug 20251,700
Jul 20251,633
Jun 20251,562
May 20251,275
Apr 20251,275
Mar 20251,319
Feb 20251,803
Jan 20252,100
Dec 20242,148
Nov 20242,004
Oct 20241,790
Sept 20241,844
Aug 20241,635
Jul 20241,478
Jun 20241,350
May 20241,261
Apr 20241,250
Mar 20241,325
Feb 20241,384
Jan 20241,621
Nov 20231,558
Oct 20231,765
Sept 20231,735
Aug 20231,582
Jul 20231,494
Jun 20231,385
May 20231,321
Apr 20231,367
Mar 20231,500
Feb 20231,350
Dec 20221,652
Nov 20221,730
Oct 20221,530
Sept 20221,417
Aug 20221,283
May 2022842
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022667
Feb 2022733
Jan 2022950
Oct 20211,000
Apr 2021645
Mar 2021640
Feb 2021642
Jan 2021844
Dec 2020725
Nov 2020817
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020692
Aug 2020700
Jul 2020675
Jun 2020633
Mar 2020532
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020950
Dec 20191,055
Oct 20191,038
Aug 2019738
Jul 2019980
Jun 2019567
May 2019483
Mar 2019410
Feb 2019592
Jan 2019567
Dec 2018600
Nov 2018633
Oct 20181,417Data error
Sept 2018610
Aug 2018550
Jul 2018520
Jun 2018514
May 2018430
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,078
Jul 20171,040
Jun 20171,100
May 2017971
Apr 2017960
Mar 2017850
Jan 20171,300
Oct 2016900
Aug 2016650
Jul 2016557
Jun 2016500
May 2016464
Apr 2016418
Mar 2016434
Feb 2016583
Oct 2015654
Sept 2015604
Jul 2015475
Jun 2015446
May 2015360
Apr 2015347
Mar 2015440
Feb 2015226Data error
Dec 2014493
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014530

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2470-67-retail-kg.