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Cassava flour in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,406–2,227

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,374–2,569

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,406 and 2,227 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,374 and 2,569 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Giteranyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,406 and 2,227 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,374 and 2,569 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,031); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,505–1,941 1,695 1,386–2,058 1,992 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,382–2,037 1,688 1,233–2,692 1,662 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,406–2,227 1,670 1,334–2,988 1,925 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,346–2,330 1,669 1,263–3,548 1,775 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,374–2,569 1,673 1,179–5,031 1,793 –
Price history (119 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,767
Jun 20261,875
May 20261,679
Apr 20261,660
Mar 20261,538
Feb 20261,641
Jan 20261,750
Dec 20251,367
Nov 20251,675
Oct 20251,629
Sept 20251,812
Aug 20251,767
Jul 20252,167
Jun 20251,975
May 20251,750
Apr 20251,732
Mar 20251,662
Feb 20251,434
Jan 20251,562
Dec 20241,713
Nov 20241,815
Oct 20241,765
Sept 20241,628
Aug 20241,552
Jul 20241,700
Jun 20241,650
May 20241,850
Apr 20241,825
Mar 20241,733
Feb 20241,735
Jan 20241,800
Nov 20231,712
Oct 20231,785
Sept 20231,726
Aug 20231,735
Jul 20231,679
Jun 20231,548
May 20231,668
Apr 20231,683
Mar 20231,475
Feb 20231,350
Dec 20221,294
Nov 20221,237
Oct 20221,370
Sept 20221,150
Aug 20221,083
May 2022967
Apr 2022850
Mar 2022758
Feb 2022767
Jan 2022875
Oct 2021750
Apr 2021783
Mar 2021800
Feb 2021767
Jan 2021744
Dec 2020683
Nov 2020717
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020625
Aug 2020650
Jul 2020675
Jun 2020650
Mar 2020588
Feb 2020550
Jan 2020550
Dec 2019545
Oct 2019471
Aug 2019467
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019500
May 2019483
Mar 2019460
Feb 2019443
Jan 2019467
Dec 2018560
Nov 2018458
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018510
Aug 2018533
Jul 2018570
Jun 2018683
May 2018700
Sept 20171,300
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,258
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,250
Mar 20171,225
Feb 20171,225
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,075
Nov 2016900
Oct 2016700
Sept 2016700
Aug 2016700
Jul 2016700
Jun 2016700
May 2016696
Apr 2016714
Mar 2016722
Feb 2016750
Jan 2016696
Dec 2015679
Nov 2015540
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015486
Aug 2015473
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015496
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015470
Feb 2015354
Jan 2015368
Dec 2014431
Nov 2014724
Oct 2014371

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2470-74-retail-kg.