Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Maize flour in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,850–2,525

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,724–2,750

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,850 and 2,525 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,724 and 2,750 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Giteranyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,850 and 2,525 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,724 and 2,750 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,970); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,847–2,199 2,016 1,672–2,442 2,481 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,834–2,343 2,070 1,568–2,620 2,424 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,850–2,525 2,088 1,558–2,814 2,600 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,840–2,708 2,124 1,495–3,786 2,617 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,724–2,750 2,087 1,426–3,970 2,484 –
Price history (115 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20262,000
May 20261,802
Apr 20261,570
Mar 20261,788
Feb 20261,897
Jan 20262,200
Dec 20252,217
Nov 20252,231
Oct 20252,129
Sept 20252,258
Aug 20252,233
Jul 20252,300
Jun 20252,000
May 20252,000
Apr 20251,838
Mar 20251,794
Feb 20252,303
Jan 20252,550
Dec 20242,518
Nov 20242,404
Oct 20242,135
Sept 20242,194
Aug 20242,035
Jul 20241,822
Jun 20241,875
May 20241,711
Apr 20241,650
Mar 20241,583
Feb 20241,704
Jan 20241,979
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,175
Sept 20232,082
Aug 20231,870
Jul 20231,842
Jun 20231,758
May 20231,697
Apr 20231,717
Mar 20231,825
Feb 20231,642
Dec 20222,073
Nov 20222,060
Oct 20221,830
Sept 20221,767
Aug 20221,492
May 20221,100
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022875
Feb 2022967
Jan 20221,150
Oct 20211,200
Apr 2021825
Mar 2021817
Feb 2021833
Jan 20211,133
Dec 2020975
Nov 2020967
Oct 20201,033
Sept 2020858
Aug 2020900
Jul 2020842
Jun 2020833
Mar 2020650
Feb 2020775
Jan 20201,100
Dec 20191,155
Oct 20191,206
Aug 2019925
Jul 20191,110
Jun 2019733
May 2019642
Mar 2019600
Feb 2019792
Jan 2019733
Dec 2018820
Nov 2018767
Oct 2018750
Sept 2018780
Aug 2018717
Jul 2018720
Jun 2018724
May 2018660
Sept 20171,300
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,296
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,160
Mar 20171,075
Feb 20171,208
Jan 20171,300
Dec 20161,275
Nov 20161,225
Oct 2016967
Sept 2016850
Aug 2016875
Jul 2016730
Jun 2016596
May 2016597
Apr 2016596
Mar 2016594
Feb 2016767
Sept 2015633
Aug 2015585
Jul 2015600
Jun 2015533
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015420
Feb 2015396
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014580
Nov 2014609
Oct 2014609

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2470-76-retail-kg.