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Oil (vegetable) in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,083–18,827

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,877–19,707

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,083 and 18,827 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,877 and 19,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Giteranyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,083 and 18,827 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,877 and 19,707 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 27,179); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,389–16,993 14,701 12,318–17,235 18,766 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,168–17,849 14,915 11,905–20,554 19,216 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,083–18,827 14,787 11,289–26,343 18,322 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,989–19,843 15,065 11,416–27,179 19,441 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,877–19,707 15,240 11,049–22,928 20,077 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,500
Jun 202615,250
May 202615,000
Apr 202615,000
Mar 202613,578
Feb 202613,908
Jan 202617,000
Dec 202516,333
Nov 202515,979
Oct 202518,529
Sept 202518,000
Aug 202519,000
Jul 202516,000
Jun 202516,500
May 202516,500
Apr 202516,800
Mar 202515,750
Feb 202514,781
Jan 202514,853
Dec 202414,640
Nov 202412,826
Oct 202414,438
Sept 202414,000
Aug 202413,825
Jul 202411,167
Jun 202411,000
May 202411,000
Apr 20249,750
Mar 20249,208
Feb 20249,430
Jan 20249,708
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20238,854
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20238,947
Jun 20238,894
May 20238,794
Apr 20239,000
Mar 20238,625
Feb 20238,583
Dec 20228,703
Nov 20229,000
Oct 20229,000
Sept 20229,000
Aug 20229,000
May 20228,583
Apr 20228,500
Mar 20228,167
Feb 20228,333
Jan 20228,500
Oct 20218,000
Apr 20215,917
Mar 20215,833
Feb 20215,750
Jan 20215,444
Dec 20205,417
Nov 20204,867
Oct 20204,500
Sept 20204,500
Aug 20204,500
Jul 20204,800
Jun 20204,833
Mar 20204,500
Feb 20204,500
Jan 20204,625
Dec 20194,333
Nov 20194,067
Oct 20194,100
Sept 20194,133
Aug 20194,167
Jul 20194,167
Jun 20194,167
May 20194,167
Mar 20194,160
Feb 20193,920
Jan 20194,017
Dec 20183,960
Nov 20184,133
Oct 20184,167
Sept 20184,300
Aug 20184,200
Jul 20184,240
Jun 20184,214
May 20184,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2470-96-retail-kg.