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Food basket in Giteranyi

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,791–41,121

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,858–46,185

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,180 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,791 and 41,121 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,858 and 46,185 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Giteranyi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 33,180 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,791 and 41,121 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,858 and 46,185 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 86,047); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,905–36,081 32,656 28,339–38,029
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,612–38,305 32,849 26,502–44,902
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,791–41,121 32,861 27,251–51,281
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,938–42,901 33,072 26,359–58,874
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,858–46,185 33,165 25,628–86,047
Cost history (83 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202633,180
Jun 202635,970
May 202633,251
Apr 202634,338
Mar 202630,623
Feb 202631,437
Jan 202633,215
Dec 202528,305
Nov 202531,605
Oct 202532,465
Sept 202536,062
Aug 202532,200
Jul 202537,970
Jun 202535,239
May 202535,130
Apr 202533,890
Mar 202532,443
Feb 202529,019
Jan 202530,089
Dec 202431,221
Nov 202432,494
Oct 202431,613
Sept 202428,957
Aug 202427,348
Jul 202429,394
Jun 202428,830
May 202432,096
Apr 202431,391
Mar 202429,477
Feb 202429,578
Jan 202429,420
Nov 202328,370
Oct 202330,771
Sept 202330,244
Aug 202329,135
Jul 202327,264
Jun 202324,847
May 202329,237
Apr 202329,585
Mar 202327,270
Feb 202324,807
Dec 202222,924
Nov 202222,687
Oct 202223,391
Sept 202220,289
Aug 202219,005
May 202217,695
Apr 202216,005
Mar 202213,593
Feb 202213,640
Jan 202214,758
Oct 202113,740
Apr 202113,531
Mar 202113,450
Feb 202113,145
Jan 202112,548
Dec 202012,465
Nov 202013,116
Oct 202011,818
Sept 202011,819
Aug 202011,982
Jul 202012,111
Jun 202011,554
Mar 202010,946
Feb 202010,464
Jan 20209,940
Dec 201910,422
Oct 20199,496
Aug 20199,309
Jul 20199,300
Jun 20199,450
May 20199,554
Mar 20199,128
Feb 20198,637
Jan 20198,784
Dec 201810,284
Nov 20189,009
Oct 20188,863
Sept 20189,854
Aug 201810,045
Jul 201810,412
Jun 201811,643
May 201811,557

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620