Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Kayanza

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,628–10,452

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,508–11,412

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,628 and 10,452 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,508 and 11,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kayanza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,628 and 10,452 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,508 and 11,412 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,172–10,429 9,165 7,682–11,304 11,079 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,412–10,096 8,790 6,963–10,838 9,568 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,628–10,452 8,876 6,827–11,341 9,980 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,591–10,812 8,913 6,756–12,959 9,855 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,508–11,412 9,204 6,335–13,695 10,607 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jul 202610,000
Jun 20269,611
May 20269,719
Apr 20269,500
Mar 202610,094
Feb 20269,500
Jan 20268,636
Dec 20258,000
Nov 20259,562
Oct 20259,794
Sept 202510,000
Aug 202511,000
Jul 202511,462
Jun 202511,688
May 202511,686
Apr 202510,812
Mar 202510,059
Feb 20258,619
Jan 20257,548
Dec 20246,544
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,833
Sept 20247,011
Aug 20246,502
Jul 20246,333
Jun 20246,177
May 20245,819
Apr 20246,333
Mar 20245,200
Feb 20245,648
Jan 20246,433
Dec 20236,217
Nov 20235,493
Oct 20235,767
Sept 20236,154
Aug 20236,333
Jul 20235,900
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,403
Apr 20235,260
Mar 20235,041
Feb 20234,506
Jan 20235,200
Dec 20224,339
Nov 20224,503
Oct 20224,033
Sept 20224,935
Aug 20225,419
Jul 20226,000
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,620
Apr 20223,900
Mar 20223,700
Feb 20223,375
Jan 20223,500
Oct 20213,267
May 20212,900
Apr 20212,764
Mar 20212,717
Feb 20212,617
Jan 20212,537
Dec 20202,494
Nov 20202,527
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,470
Aug 20202,502
Jul 20202,600
Jun 20202,800
Mar 20202,489
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,500
Dec 20192,500
Nov 20192,500
Oct 20192,200
Sept 20192,686
Aug 20192,825
Jul 20192,750
Jun 20192,933
May 20192,783
Mar 20192,317
Feb 20192,233
Jan 20192,120
Dec 20182,050
Nov 20182,200
Oct 20181,920
Sept 20182,900
Aug 20183,420
Jul 20183,375
Jun 20183,100
May 20183,000
Jan 20182,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2471-62-retail-kg.