Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Cassava flour in Kayanza

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,286–2,093

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,280–2,276

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,286 and 2,093 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,280 and 2,276 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kayanza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,286 and 2,093 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,280 and 2,276 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,334); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,374–1,855 1,577 1,239–2,067 1,795 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,310–1,938 1,589 1,094–2,468 1,615 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,286–2,093 1,571 1,149–2,655 1,750 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,242–2,205 1,561 1,137–3,334 1,657 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,280–2,276 1,577 1,137–3,262 1,747 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,650
Jul 20261,600
Jun 20261,522
May 20261,646
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,619
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,373
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,415
Oct 20251,279
Sept 20251,112
Aug 20251,750
Jul 20251,662
Jun 20251,689
May 20251,371
Apr 20251,400
Mar 20251,436
Feb 20251,298
Jan 20251,182
Dec 20241,407
Nov 20241,590
Oct 20241,400
Sept 20241,453
Aug 20241,500
Jul 20241,333
Jun 20241,371
May 20241,817
Apr 20241,936
Mar 20241,924
Feb 20241,828
Jan 20241,833
Dec 20231,817
Nov 20231,819
Oct 20231,730
Sept 20231,854
Aug 20231,650
Jul 20231,900
Jun 20231,915
May 20232,000
Apr 20232,104
Mar 20231,961
Feb 20231,609
Jan 20231,500
Dec 20221,348
Nov 20221,353
Oct 20221,242
Sept 20221,225
Aug 20221,171
Jul 2022900
Jun 20221,000
May 20221,104
Apr 20221,133
Mar 20221,050
Feb 20221,050
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021967
May 20211,033
Apr 20211,014
Mar 2021933
Feb 2021983
Jan 2021919
Dec 2020938
Nov 2020902
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020728
Aug 2020795
Jul 2020717
Jun 2020844
Mar 2020757
Feb 2020850
Jan 2020655
Dec 2019618
Oct 2019560
Aug 2019470
Jul 2019489
Jun 2019633
May 2019617
Mar 2019608
Feb 2019542
Jan 2019620
Dec 2018488
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018430
Sept 2018442
Aug 2018460
Jul 2018525
Jun 2018792
May 2018950
Jan 2018850
Sept 20171,183
Aug 20171,322
Jul 20171,244
May 20171,450
Apr 20171,350
Mar 20171,234
Oct 2016967
Sept 2016972
Aug 2016904
Jul 2016894
Jun 2016777
May 2016724
Apr 2016603
Mar 2016726
Feb 2016742
Jan 2016592
Dec 2015634
Nov 2015541
Oct 2015455
Sept 2015441
Aug 2015414
Jul 2015477
Jun 2015548
May 2015714
Apr 2015612
Mar 2015512
Feb 2015448
Jan 2015456
Dec 2014532
Nov 2014617
Oct 2014518

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2471-74-retail-kg.