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Maize flour in Kayanza

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,792–2,632

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,693–2,678

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,792 and 2,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,693 and 2,678 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kayanza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,792 and 2,632 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,693 and 2,678 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,755–2,273 1,961 1,585–2,338 2,605 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,718–2,379 2,010 1,553–2,539 2,500 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,792–2,632 2,099 1,500–3,063 2,738 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,778–2,704 2,126 1,512–2,936 2,767 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,693–2,678 2,036 1,479–2,985 2,587 –
Price history (121 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,850
Jul 20262,250
Jun 20261,900
May 20261,767
Apr 20261,650
Mar 20261,753
Feb 20261,870
Jan 20261,873
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20251,956
Aug 20252,250
Jul 20251,892
Jun 20252,106
May 20251,690
Apr 20251,938
Mar 20251,912
Feb 20252,246
Jan 20252,518
Dec 20242,893
Nov 20242,728
Oct 20242,367
Sept 20242,218
Aug 20241,802
Jul 20241,633
Jun 20241,512
May 20241,587
Apr 20241,567
Mar 20241,600
Feb 20241,796
Jan 20242,333
Dec 20232,233
Nov 20232,424
Oct 20232,327
Sept 20232,246
Aug 20232,067
Jul 20232,050
Jun 20231,927
May 20231,779
Apr 20231,840
Mar 20231,915
Feb 20231,806
Jan 20232,000
Dec 20222,224
Nov 20222,344
Oct 20222,050
Sept 20221,735
Aug 20221,542
Jul 20221,200
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,216
Apr 20221,233
Mar 20221,050
Feb 20221,175
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,300
May 2021833
Apr 2021833
Mar 2021950
Feb 20211,275
Jan 20211,275
Dec 20201,412
Nov 20201,350
Oct 20201,050
Sept 20201,052
Aug 20201,000
Jul 2020967
Jun 20201,017
Mar 2020861
Feb 2020900
Jan 20201,324
Dec 20191,356
Oct 20191,030
Aug 2019800
Jul 2019998
Jun 2019683
May 2019742
Mar 2019742
Feb 2019692
Jan 2019830
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018758
Oct 2018660
Sept 2018675
Aug 2018650
Jul 2018688
Jun 2018667
May 2018692
Jan 20181,100
Sept 20171,308
Aug 20171,534
Jul 20171,461
May 20171,466
Apr 20171,284
Mar 20171,167
Oct 20161,283
Sept 20161,314
Aug 20161,224
Jul 20161,150
Jun 2016929
May 20161,025
Apr 20161,113
Mar 20161,142
Feb 20161,092
Jan 20161,067
Dec 20151,073
Nov 20151,118
Oct 20151,020
Sept 2015992
Aug 2015975
Jul 2015880
Jun 20151,042
May 20151,004
Apr 2015993
Mar 2015917
Feb 2015892
Jan 2015883
Dec 2014724
Nov 20141,208
Oct 20141,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2471-76-retail-kg.