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Oil (vegetable) in Kayanza

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,252–19,606

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,040–20,116

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,252 and 19,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,040 and 20,116 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kayanza: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,252 and 19,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,040 and 20,116 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,362–18,575 15,920 13,617–18,987 18,501 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,343–19,079 16,286 13,344–20,622 19,516 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,252–19,606 15,980 13,059–21,724 18,395 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,153–19,436 15,842 12,943–19,948 18,215 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,040–20,116 16,431 13,851–20,183 20,436 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,000
Jul 202619,000
Jun 202615,111
May 202616,208
Apr 202616,500
Mar 202614,250
Feb 202614,700
Jan 202616,545
Dec 202514,000
Nov 202516,812
Oct 202517,500
Sept 202516,875
Aug 202516,000
Jul 202518,385
Jun 202516,115
May 202517,686
Apr 202517,750
Mar 202516,912
Feb 202514,845
Jan 202515,991
Dec 202413,978
Nov 202412,949
Oct 202412,333
Sept 202412,311
Aug 202413,517
Jul 202411,667
Jun 202411,708
May 202410,654
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,618
Feb 20249,420
Jan 202411,500
Dec 20239,000
Nov 20239,097
Oct 20239,783
Sept 202310,103
Aug 202310,250
Jul 20239,375
Jun 20239,879
May 20239,529
Apr 20239,302
Mar 20239,931
Feb 20239,094
Jan 20238,500
Dec 20229,106
Nov 202210,250
Oct 202210,417
Sept 20229,708
Aug 20229,875
Jul 202210,000
Jun 202210,000
May 20229,088
Apr 20228,500
Mar 20228,500
Feb 20227,250
Jan 20228,000
Oct 20219,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,311
Mar 20215,967
Feb 20215,817
Jan 20215,766
Dec 20205,565
Nov 20205,390
Oct 20206,000
Sept 20204,885
Aug 20204,191
Jul 20205,383
Jun 20205,650
Mar 20204,478
Feb 20204,550
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,800
Nov 20194,333
Oct 20194,083
Sept 20194,500
Aug 20194,125
Jul 20194,467
Jun 20194,000
May 20194,500
Mar 20194,333
Feb 20194,750
Jan 20194,600
Dec 20184,375
Nov 20184,233
Oct 20184,740
Sept 20184,667
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20184,350
Jun 20184,433
May 20185,000
Jan 20184,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2471-96-retail-kg.