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Food basket in Kayanza

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,264–38,727

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,040–42,725

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,230 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,264 and 38,727 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,040 and 42,725 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kayanza: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,230 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,264 and 38,727 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,040 and 42,725 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 58,493); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,478–34,685 31,015 26,793–37,089
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,228–36,456 31,132 24,632–42,149
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,264–38,727 31,337 25,469–45,573
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,520–40,820 31,560 24,708–56,301
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,040–42,725 31,873 24,980–58,493
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202631,230
Jul 202631,320
Jun 202630,258
May 202634,683
Apr 202634,725
Mar 202632,740
Feb 202629,955
Jan 202627,046
Dec 202528,020
Nov 202528,456
Oct 202527,294
Sept 202525,414
Aug 202533,540
Jul 202532,444
Jun 202532,729
May 202529,116
Apr 202530,291
Mar 202530,658
Feb 202527,636
Jan 202525,943
Dec 202428,144
Nov 202429,646
Oct 202427,275
Sept 202427,790
Aug 202427,697
Jul 202425,320
Jun 202424,815
May 202430,382
Apr 202432,822
Mar 202431,622
Feb 202430,715
Jan 202431,359
Dec 202330,950
Nov 202330,813
Oct 202329,827
Sept 202331,292
Aug 202329,510
Jul 202331,214
Jun 202331,791
May 202333,181
Apr 202335,240
Mar 202333,666
Feb 202328,294
Jan 202326,988
Dec 202223,267
Nov 202223,355
Oct 202221,199
Sept 202221,132
Aug 202220,354
Jul 202217,460
Jun 202218,330
May 202219,578
Apr 202219,651
Mar 202217,313
Feb 202216,864
Jan 202217,775
Oct 202115,774
May 202116,201
Apr 202116,399
Mar 202115,969
Feb 202116,275
Jan 202115,370
Dec 202015,955
Nov 202015,629
Oct 202014,136
Sept 202013,159
Aug 202013,952
Jul 202012,554
Jun 202014,095
Mar 202013,273
Feb 202014,196
Jan 202011,750
Dec 201911,202
Oct 201910,278
Aug 20199,420
Jul 20199,815
Jun 201911,424
May 201911,421
Mar 201911,118
Feb 201910,051
Jan 201910,955
Dec 20189,604
Nov 20189,618
Oct 20188,501
Sept 20189,311
Aug 20189,752
Jul 201810,384
Jun 201813,409
May 201815,690
Jan 201813,020

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620