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Oil (palm) in Kinyinya

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

5,723–8,763

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

5,524–10,094

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 5,723 and 8,763 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,524 and 10,094 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kinyinya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 5,723 and 8,763 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 5,524 and 10,094 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,688); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,125–8,412 7,060 5,781–8,566 9,234 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 5,826–8,377 6,818 5,482–10,885 8,412 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 5,723–8,763 6,580 5,117–12,786 7,838 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 5,649–8,929 6,628 4,988–11,770 7,936 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 5,524–10,094 6,802 4,704–16,688 8,311 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20266,517
Jun 20267,783
May 20267,467
Apr 20267,317
Mar 20267,969
Feb 20267,521
Jan 20267,629
Dec 20257,375
Nov 20257,274
Oct 20257,708
Sept 20258,167
Aug 20257,833
Jul 20257,500
Jun 20258,344
May 20257,431
Apr 20258,717
Mar 20259,765
Feb 20257,607
Jan 20256,854
Dec 20246,167
Nov 20245,000
Oct 20245,530
Sept 20246,489
Aug 20246,500
Jul 20247,163
Jun 20246,906
May 20246,201
Apr 20245,833
Mar 20245,735
Feb 20245,455
Jan 20246,417
Dec 20235,000
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,200
Sept 20237,531
Aug 20236,523
Jul 20236,000
Jun 20236,250
May 20235,000
Apr 20234,938
Mar 20234,647
Feb 20234,344
Jan 20234,000
Dec 20223,682
Nov 20224,000
Oct 20224,095
Sept 20224,628
Aug 20224,341
May 20223,963
Apr 20223,800
Mar 20223,417
Feb 20223,350
Jan 20223,350
Oct 20214,350
Sept 20214,425
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,767
Mar 20212,910
Feb 20213,000
Jan 20212,644
Dec 20202,691
Nov 20202,533
Oct 20202,533
Sept 20202,578
Aug 20202,456
Jul 20202,798
Jun 20202,708
Mar 20203,100
Feb 20203,100
Jan 20203,200
Dec 20193,200
Nov 20192,825
Oct 20193,000
Sept 20193,200
Aug 20193,200
Jul 20193,200
May 20192,800
Mar 20193,100
Feb 20193,080
Jan 20192,633
Dec 20182,571
Nov 20182,720
Oct 20183,083
Sept 20183,450
Aug 20183,100
Jul 20183,600
Jun 20183,417
May 20182,900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2472-62-retail-kg.