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Cassava flour in Kinyinya

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 8% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,315–2,342

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,352–2,630

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,315 and 2,342 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,352 and 2,630 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kinyinya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,315 and 2,342 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,352 and 2,630 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,500); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,342–1,887 1,603 1,271–2,218 1,701 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,321–2,106 1,614 1,245–2,706 1,776 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,315–2,342 1,630 1,275–3,213 1,941 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,247–2,285 1,538 1,204–3,899 1,701 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,352–2,630 1,670 1,272–4,500 1,900 –
Price history (119 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,667
Jun 20261,656
May 20261,667
Apr 20261,667
Mar 20261,822
Feb 20261,588
Jan 20261,646
Dec 20251,583
Nov 20251,594
Oct 20251,783
Sept 20251,700
Aug 20251,583
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,667
May 20251,667
Apr 20251,548
Mar 20251,608
Feb 20251,698
Jan 20252,019
Dec 20241,973
Nov 20241,972
Oct 20241,770
Sept 20241,511
Aug 20241,475
Jul 20241,462
Jun 20241,434
May 20241,578
Apr 20241,433
Mar 20241,516
Feb 20241,805
Jan 20242,167
Dec 20231,000
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20232,042
Sept 20231,568
Aug 20231,150
Jul 20231,200
Jun 20231,200
May 2023983
Apr 20231,369
Mar 20231,229
Feb 20231,328
Jan 20231,500
Dec 2022845
Nov 2022884
Oct 2022640
Sept 2022728
Aug 2022626
May 2022744
Apr 2022700
Mar 2022700
Feb 2022700
Jan 2022650
Oct 20211,000
Sept 2021650
May 2021650
Apr 2021781
Mar 2021808
Feb 2021775
Jan 2021610
Dec 2020759
Nov 2020718
Oct 2020733
Sept 2020717
Aug 2020806
Jul 2020687
Jun 2020688
Mar 2020625
Feb 20201,000
Jan 2020509
Dec 2019478
Oct 2019487
Aug 2019464
Jul 2019500
May 2019600
Mar 2019590
Feb 2019630
Jan 2019617
Dec 2018557
Nov 2018670
Oct 2018600
Sept 2018600
Aug 2018625
Jul 2018575
Jun 2018617
May 2018683
Jul 2017966
Jun 2017797
Apr 2017918
Mar 2017944
Feb 2017896
Jan 2017717
Dec 2016739
Nov 2016704
Oct 2016596
Sept 2016620
Aug 2016494
Jul 2016522
Jun 2016477
May 2016477
Apr 2016495
Mar 2016461
Feb 2016478
Jan 2016491
Dec 2015458
Nov 2015383
Oct 2015344
Sept 2015369
Aug 2015388
Jul 2015454
Jun 2015446
May 2015422
Apr 2015454
Mar 2015481
Feb 2015416
Jan 2015371
Dec 2014324
Nov 2014369
Oct 2014350

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2472-74-retail-kg.