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Oil (vegetable) in Kinyinya

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,625–19,735

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,106–20,527

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,625 and 19,735 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,106 and 20,527 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kinyinya: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,625 and 19,735 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,106 and 20,527 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,654); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,679–18,021 16,378 14,021–19,543 17,590 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,511–18,644 16,340 13,673–23,170 17,807 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,625–19,735 16,202 13,598–25,917 17,951 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,376–20,405 16,261 13,030–26,654 18,811 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,106–20,527 16,241 13,061–24,459 18,978 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,667
Jun 202616,500
May 202617,167
Apr 202617,167
Mar 202617,444
Feb 202617,095
Jan 202617,417
Dec 202518,583
Nov 202515,328
Oct 202517,139
Sept 202515,000
Aug 202513,500
Jul 202515,000
Jun 202514,522
May 202514,588
Apr 202514,913
Mar 202514,706
Feb 202511,905
Jan 202511,139
Dec 202410,867
Nov 202411,750
Oct 202410,515
Sept 202410,700
Aug 202412,941
Jul 202411,514
Jun 202411,000
May 202410,611
Apr 20249,333
Mar 20248,922
Feb 20249,333
Jan 202410,333
Dec 202310,000
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20238,556
Sept 20239,365
Aug 20239,500
Jul 20239,500
Jun 20239,250
May 20239,250
Apr 20239,578
Mar 20239,176
Feb 20239,000
Jan 20239,000
Dec 20228,818
Nov 20228,938
Oct 20228,950
Sept 20228,766
Aug 20227,779
May 20227,420
Apr 20227,000
Mar 20226,583
Feb 20226,250
Jan 20227,500
Oct 20217,750
Sept 20216,375
May 20215,167
Apr 20214,708
Mar 20214,952
Feb 20214,750
Jan 20214,679
Dec 20204,615
Nov 20204,427
Oct 20203,867
Sept 20204,278
Aug 20203,983
Jul 20204,235
Jun 20204,219
Mar 20204,000
Feb 20204,250
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,000
Nov 20193,875
Oct 20194,000
Sept 20194,000
Aug 20193,800
Jul 20194,000
May 20194,000
Mar 20194,400
Feb 20194,000
Jan 20194,167
Dec 20184,429
Nov 20184,000
Oct 20183,833
Sept 20184,000
Aug 20184,375
Jul 20184,333
Jun 20184,167
May 20184,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2472-96-retail-kg.