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Food basket in Kinyinya

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,635–39,596

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,641–47,315

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,287 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,635 and 39,596 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,641 and 47,315 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kinyinya: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,287 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,635 and 39,596 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,641 and 47,315 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 70,521); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,459–34,014 29,949 25,158–37,553
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 26,671–37,151 30,841 25,139–44,434
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,635–39,596 31,283 25,113–49,424
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,605–40,900 30,424 24,117–60,873
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,641–47,315 31,943 24,522–70,521
Cost history (86 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202630,287
Jun 202629,917
May 202631,422
Apr 202631,709
Mar 202632,277
Feb 202627,881
Jan 202629,318
Dec 202529,309
Nov 202529,324
Oct 202532,019
Sept 202531,165
Aug 202529,565
Jul 202528,575
Jun 202530,714
May 202529,479
Apr 202530,044
Mar 202531,649
Feb 202530,810
Jan 202534,923
Dec 202435,735
Nov 202434,509
Oct 202431,816
Sept 202428,487
Aug 202427,512
Jul 202427,695
Jun 202426,663
May 202428,882
Apr 202426,685
Mar 202427,528
Feb 202429,815
Jan 202436,848
Dec 202320,490
Nov 202326,640
Oct 202333,761
Sept 202328,700
Aug 202323,038
Jul 202322,770
Jun 202321,952
May 202321,100
Apr 202325,530
Mar 202323,021
Feb 202323,018
Jan 202325,800
Dec 202217,791
Nov 202217,591
Oct 202213,620
Sept 202214,293
Aug 202212,932
May 202214,210
Apr 202213,362
Mar 202212,498
Feb 202212,692
Jan 202212,272
Oct 202117,432
Sept 202113,373
May 202112,330
Apr 202113,538
Mar 202113,885
Feb 202113,170
Jan 202111,933
Dec 202013,993
Nov 202013,609
Oct 202013,488
Sept 202013,289
Aug 202014,070
Jul 202012,341
Jun 202012,089
Mar 202011,529
Feb 202015,444
Jan 202010,146
Dec 201910,094
Oct 201910,040
Aug 20199,602
Jul 20199,468
May 201910,752
Mar 201911,055
Feb 201911,251
Jan 201911,452
Dec 201810,877
Nov 201812,293
Oct 201811,488
Sept 201811,470
Aug 201811,529
Jul 201811,274
Jun 201811,708
May 201812,001

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620